Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 23 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 23 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 25 2023…Heavy rain chances and flash flood potential increases across the
Southern Plains early this week……Some locally heavy rainfall possible for the Upper Great Lakes
Tuesday……Impactful snow to enter parts of the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and
northern High Plains on Tuesday…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
After a generally quiet period of weather for much of the country, the
pattern gets more active this week including a couple regions of locally
heavy rainfall with flash flood potential and an early season winter
storm. An initial upper-level low dropping well southward into northern
Mexico as a ridge amplifies over the Southeast will help to focus
southerly flow over the Southern Plains. The potent upper-level dynamics
as well as ample moisture advecting northward, enhanced by the remnants of
Norma from the eastern Pacific, are expected to trigger numerous showers
and thunderstorms from the Texas Big Bend vicinity northeastward through
northwest Texas into Oklahoma and eastern Kansas Monday and Tuesday.
Slight Risks for Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are in effect both days as
the anomalously high moisture, as well as the stagnant pattern with storms
repeating over the same area, will lead to the threat of locally heavy
downpours/rainfall totals and the risk of some scattered flash flooding.
Rain chances look to continue this week beyond the current forecast period
as the upper low is forecast to progress slowly and a stormy pattern
remains in place. High temperatures will generally be above average from
the Southern Plains into the Southeast under the influence of the
upper-level ridge, with 70s and 80s forecast. Temperatures will be around
average to the west under the upper-low, with 60s and 70s for California
and the Great Basin and 80s for the Desert Southwest.Meanwhile, further north, some lighter showers are expected Monday along a
cold front pushing southward across the Northern Plains and Upper Great
Lakes. As the noted broad southerly flow over the Plains helps to advect
more moisture northward, some more potent storms will locally heavy
downpours are possible Tuesday for portions of the Upper Great Lakes, with
an isolated risk of flash flooding. Temperatures will be running as much
as 10 to 20 degrees above average ahead of the front, with the anomalies
centered on the Central Plains Monday and the Mississippi Valley into
Great Lakes Tuesday. Highs well into the 80s and even a shot at 90 are
possible for the Central Plains Monday.To the west, some rain and higher elevation, mountain snow is expected
along the frontal boundary as it extends into the Northern Rockies Monday.
Then, another upper-level system upstream over the northeastern Pacific
will drop southward Tuesday, enhancing precipitation chances along and
behind the frontal boundary. This will also bring much colder air
southward, dropping snow levels and lead to an early season winter storm
beginning in the northwest and Northern Rockies by late Tuesday. This
storm will continue beyond the current forecast period, and spread further
eastward into the Northern High Plains by Wednesday. Winter storm watches
are out for portions of the Cascades and Northern Rockies as storm total
snow of 8-12″ will be possible. Snow levels will drop overnight Tuesday,
allowing rain to change over to snow for lower elevations, with
accumulations of a few inches possible through Wednesday. Highs in the 50s
and 60s Monday will drop into the 40s and 50s Tuesday, with much chillier
winter-like temperatures expected by Wednesday.Elsewhere, after a chilly Monday morning with temperatures dropping near
freezing for the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley, conditions will
remain a bit below average broadly across the Northeast , with highs
mainly in the 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will moderate a bit Tuesday
with some low 70s possible.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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| 8–
14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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