Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
WS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 21 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 21 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 23 2023…Showers and storms expected from the Great Lakes into the Northeast
Saturday, with some locally heavy rainfall possible in New England……Much above average temperatures continue this weekend for portions of
the central and western U.S……Increasing precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest to the
Northern Rockies Sunday…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Showers and thunderstorms will continue from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast Saturday under the influence of an upper-level trough and
associated low pressure/frontal system at the surface. The low is expected
to rapidly deepen as it tracks along the coast of New England through the
day, helping to enhance moist onshore flow and increase the chance for
some locally heavier rainfall. A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 1/4) remains in place for much of New England for an isolated risk
of flash flooding. Meanwhile, broad northwesterly flow over the Great
Lakes will also lead to some lighter showers in favorable lake-effect
regions. The rain chances should diminish from west to east overnight
Saturday into the day Sunday as the system moves northeast into Canada,
lingering longest for New England. Conditions will be a bit cool for the
region following a cold front passage, with highs in the 40s and 50s from
the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley and Interior Northeast and 60s
closer to the coast.Highs will be running above average by as much as 20 degrees this weekend
for a large portion of the central and western U.S. as an upper-level
ridge remains in place. Forecast highs Saturday are in the 60s and 70s for
the interior Pacific Northwest, the Great Basin, Rockies, and Northern and
Central Plains. It will feel more like Summer further south, with highs in
the 80s and 90s for the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains with
some low 100s in the Desert Southwest. Some record-tying/breaking highs
are possible. Temperatures will generally drop a few degrees Sunday as the
ridge weakens a bit, but still remain well above average. Highs will be
closer to average for the Southeast and Florida with 70s and some low 80s
expected.An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast by Sunday morning,
helping to advance a stalled frontal boundary southeastward, bringing
increasing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures from northern
California and the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin and
Rockies. Higher mountain elevations may start to see snow mix in by early
Monday morning. After the noted much above average temperatures Saturday,
highs will drop into the 60s for most locations, with even some upper 50s
possible for northern California.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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