Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 20 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 22 2023…Storm system to bring showers and thunderstorms to the East into the
weekend……Much above average, record-tying/breaking warmth for much of the
central-western U.S…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
An amplified upper-level pattern with troughing over the eastern U.S. and
a large ridge over the central-western U.S. will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the East and more above average, record-tying/breaking
warmth to the West. A cold front currently extending from the Great Lakes
southwestward through the Ohio Valley and into the Southeast will continue
eastward Friday morning, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms along
the length of the front. In the meantime, an organizing area of low
pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will help promote onshore flow
over the Mid-Atlantic, adding a second focus for shower and thunderstorm
chances into the day Friday. The cold front will approach the East Coast
by Friday night as the coastal low shifts northward towards New England.
Rapid consolidation/deepening of this low overnight Friday and into the
day Saturday will help to enhance the flow of moisture into Upstate New
York and New England, bringing the threat for much heavier rainfall and an
isolated chance of flash flooding. Conditions will also turn a bit
blustery from the Mid-Atlantic into New England following the passage of
the system. Some lingering lake-effect rain showers will continue across
the Great Lakes as well. High temperatures ahead of the front in the
Northeast on Friday will be mild and in the 60s and 70s, with 50s behind
the front from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will
drop into the 50s and 60s for the Northeast Saturday following the frontal
passage. The Southeast and Florida will be dry by Friday evening as the
front pushes off the coast. Highs will be closer to average and in the 70s
and 80s for eastern portions of the region while warmer highs into the 80s
are forecast west towards the Lower Mississippi Valley.Meanwhile, high temperatures will be as much as 20-30 degrees above
average for late October across the central and western U.S. Friday.
Forecast highs range in the 60s and 70s from the Pacific Northwest east
through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, the 70s for the
Great Basin, the 80s for the Central Plains, the 80s and 90s for interior
California and the Southern Plains/Texas, and into the low 100s for the
Desert Southwest. Numerous record-tying/breaking highs are possible. A
cold front dropping southward through the Northern/Central Plains and a
Pacific cold front moving onshore the West Coast will bring high
temperatures back much closer to average for these areas on Saturday.
Elsewhere, while conditions will moderate a bit as the upper-level ridge
weakens, highs will still be much above average with a few more
record-tying/breaking temperatures possible from the Great Basin/Desert
Southwest east into the Southern Plains and Texas. The Pacific front will
also begin to bring some showers to northern California and the Pacific
Northwest Saturday, increasing in intensity and coverage by early Sunday
morning as the front pushes inland.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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