Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 19 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 21 2023…Increasingly unsettled weather is in store for the eastern U.S. over
the next few days..…High temperatures will challenge daily records across numerous locations`
over the western U.S. today, spreading into Texas by Friday and into
Saturday…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The cool and relatively quiet weather pattern over the eastern half of the
country is forecast to become increasingly unsettled as the dry and very
warm weather over the western half of the country continues. An Alberta
clipper currently centered over the upper Midwest will continue its
eastward journey across the Great Lakes. Rainy conditions associated with
this system is forecast for all of the Great Lakes through Friday.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough interacting with the clipper is forecast
to dig farther southeast toward the southern Atlantic states and then
interact with another low pressure wave just off the coast of the
southeastern U.S. This complex mutual interaction in conjunction with yet
another clipper system forecast to dive across central Canada toward the
Great Lakes will result in a period of increasingly unsettled weather to
expand across the eastern U.S., especially over the Northeast, as we head
closer to and into the weekend. Periods of rain associated with the first
clipper will spread gradually across the interior portion of the eastern
U.S. through Friday. By Friday night into Saturday morning, Atlantic
moisture associated with the coastal system is forecast to move up the
East Coast and overspread New England with locally enhanced rainfall and
possibly thunderstorms as well as strengthening and gusty winds. In the
meantime, showers and some thunderstorms associated with a cold front
trailing from the Alberta clipper will spread from the mid-Mississippi
Valley this morning and expand across the Southeast on Friday.Meanwhile, an anomalously strong upper-level ridge is forecast to dominate
much of the western U.S. into the mid-section of the country, providing
anomalously warm temperatures and dry conditions for these areas through
at these the next few days. High temperatures today will challenge daily
records across numerous location over the western U.S. The record warmth
is forecast to spread into Texas by Friday and into Saturday. Farther
north, the next clipper diving across central Canada will spread chilly
rain and gusty winds into the upper Midwest by Friday and into Saturday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
