Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 251 points or 0.75%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.96%,
- S&P 500 closed down 0.85%,
- Gold $1,988 up $20.10,
- WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $2.16,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.977% up 0.005 points,
- USD Index $106.21 down $0.350,
- Bitcoin $28,768 up $502,
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The October 2023 Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows general activity remained negative, while new orders and shipments were positive but low. The employment index turned positive, and both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the USA.
In the week ending October 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 205,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 206,250 to 206,750.
Existing home sales in September 2023 declined 15.4% from one year ago (blue line on the graph below). The median existing-home sales price grew 2.8% from one year ago to $394,300 but has been declining for the last three months (red line on the graph below). The inventory of unsold existing homes is equivalent to 3.4 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August. The LEI is down 3.4 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6 percent contraction over the previous six months (September 2022 to March 2023). Note that the Conference Board is still forecasting a recession. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:
The LEI for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022. In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance. Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead. So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Groundbreaking Dual-Purpose Batteries Store Energy And Capture CO2
- Drone Attacks Syrian Gas Field as Israel Conflict Escalates
- Most Americans Wouldn’t Buy An Electric Vehicle
- Musk Expresses Uncertainty About Cybertruck’s Production And Profitability
- Venezuela Could Boost Oil Production By 25% After U.S. Eases Sanctions
- Powell says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down
- U.S. State Department issues ‘worldwide caution’ alert as tensions in the Middle East soar
- Dow closes more than 200 points lower as 10-year Treasury yield nears 5%: Live updates
- 10-year Treasury yield hovers near 16-year high as Powell talks inflation, economy
- Oil Surges After Report US Destroyer Shoots Down Multiple Houthi Missiles
- Economic Report: Defense spending boosts economy as U.S. mulls more aid for Ukraine and Israel
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
The Market in Perspective
| Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
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Europe’s LNG Supply At Risk As Middle East Tensions EscalateThe ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, poses a serious threat to the regional natural gas market and could have knock-on effects on Europe’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply as winter approaches. Although Israel has surplus gas production, which currently supports Egypt and Jordan’s growing demand, a continued or escalated conflict would have wide-ranging implications, according to Rystad Energy analysis. The fate of the three largest Israeli gas development projects – Tamar, Leviathan… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europes-LNG-Supply-At-Risk-As-Middle-East-Tensions-Escalate.html |
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Bulgaria’s Tax On Russian Gas Sparks Diplomatic TensionsBulgaria’s government has defended its decision to impose a new tax on Russian gas transiting through the country as Hungary and Serbia — which rely on supplies from Moscow — vowed to respond to the move, which they called a “hostile” step. Bulgaria imposed a tax on Russian gas transit in the amount of 20 leva ($10.80) per megawatt-hour last week, prompting reactions in Budapest and Belgrade, which receive Russian gas through Bulgaria. Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov on October 18 defended the move, saying that “there… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Bulgarias-Tax-On-Russian-Gas-Sparks-Diplomatic-Tensions.html |
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Groundbreaking Dual-Purpose Batteries Store Energy And Capture CO2University of Surrey thinks efficient and cheap batteries that can also capture harmful CO2 emissions could be right around the corner, thanks to a new system that speeds up the development of catalysts for lithium – CO2 (Li-CO2) batteries. The tech relies on a new system that speeds up the development of catalysts for lithium-CO2 batteries. The study paper has been published in the journal Energy & Environmental Science. The technology has been developed by the University of Surrey, Imperial College London, and Peking University to address… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Groundbreaking-Dual-Purpose-Batteries-Store-Energy-And-Capture-CO2.html |
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Drone Attacks Syrian Gas Field as Israel Conflict EscalatesIn reports unconfirmed by the U.S. military, Syrian opposition figures claim that a possible Iran-backed group in Syria launched a drone attack on an oil facility and a U.S. military base in the country’s eastern region, as the Hamas-Israel conflict escalates. While no casualties were reported, and details remain sparse, Europe-based Syrian opposition activist Omar Abu Layla has said that three explosive-laden drones hit the Conoco gas field in Deir el-Zour province on the border with Iraq, the Associated Press reports. The… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Drone-Attacks-Syrian-Gas-Field-as-Israel-Conflict-Escalates.html |
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Central Bank Influence In Question As Gold Price Predictions UnwravelOver the past few months, gold prices have completely detached from our model-predicted prices. While we have seen deviations between actual and predicted prices in the past, those deviations were always temporary. What we are witnessing now is the paradigm shift we alluded to in our report from March 2023. Some explanations for this deviation we presented in that report are still valid. However, it appears increasingly likely that the main reason for this development is the central banks’ having lost control over the gold price. Exhibit… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Central-Bank-Influence-In-Question-As-Gold-Price-Predictions-Unwravel.html |
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Environmentalists Lose Court Challenge To New UK Oil And Gas LicensesLondon’s High Court dismissed on Thursday a legal challenge by environmental groups which have attacked the UK’s new licenses for oil and gas production in court, claiming the government hasn’t properly reviewed the emissions from burning the fossil fuels. The two climate campaign groups, Greenpeace and Uplift, have challenged the UK government’s decision to award new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea, claiming the cabinet failed to properly check “the damage it will do to the climate.”… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Environmentalists-Lose-Court-Challenge-To-New-UK-Oil-And-Gas-Licenses.html |
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BP Considers Exiting Natural Gas Field Offshore SenegalBP is in discussions to leave the Yakaar-Teranga natural gas field offshore Senegal as it no longer fits the UK supermajor’s strategy, anonymous sources with knowledge of the talks told Bloomberg on Thursday. BP, together with its joint venture partner Kosmos, made the Yakaar-1 discovery back in 2017, when BP said that it was a “major gas discovery.” Back then, BP believed that the Yakaar discovery, coupled with the Teranga discovery, “creates the foundation for a further LNG hub in the basin.” The potential… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/BP-Considers-Exiting-Natural-Gas-Field-Offshore-Senegal.html |
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Most Americans Wouldn’t Buy An Electric VehicleThe majority of Americans would not choose an electric vehicle for their next purchase of a car, a recent poll by Yahoo Finance and Ipsos has shown. Despite the Biden Administration’s push to accelerate EV adoption and the many new models automakers are offering and planning to offer, most Americans remain skeptical about the benefits of owning an electric vehicle, according to the poll. Cost, range, and availability of charging points and infrastructure are primary concerns weighing on U.S. consumers’ decision whether to buy… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Most-Americans-Wouldnt-Buy-An-Electric-Vehicle.html |
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Russia Boosts Natural Gas Deliveries To ChinaRussia is set to raise further its natural gas pipeline supply to China after state giants Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed an agreement on Thursday for the delivery of additional volumes of Russian gas to China through the end of 2023. The deliveries, via the Power of Siberia pipeline from Russia to China, will be raised under an addendum to the sale and purchase agreement for gas for 2023, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Thursday. Earlier this year, Alexey Miller, the chief executive officer of… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Russia-Boosts-Natural-Gas-Deliveries-To-China.html |
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Musk Expresses Uncertainty About Cybertruck’s Production And ProfitabilityTSLA shares were holding up, higher from the close, until CEO Elon Musk showed some uncertainty about the cybertruck’s launch (which had been picked up optimistically from the press release). “It’s an amazing product but I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then in making the Cybertruck cash flow positive,” Musk said during Tesla’s earnings call on Wednesday. “While I think this is potentially our best product ever — I think it is our best… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Musk-Expresses-Uncertainty-About-Cybertrucks-Production-And-Profitability.html |
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The Top Energy Stocks Of Q3 2023On September 29th the third quarter of 2023 came to a close. The S&P 500 lost 3.6% for the quarter, and nine of eleven S&P 500 sectors turned in a negative return in Q3. Particularly hard hit were defensive income sectors like consumer staples, real estate, and utilities. The clear star of the quarter was the energy sector, which returned double digits on the back of energy prices that are once again on the rise. Through Q3 the energy sector is up 6.1% year-to-date (YTD), after leading all sectors in 2021 and 2022. Q3 2023 Sector Returns.… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Top-Energy-Stocks-Of-Q3-2023.html |
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European Coal Imports Set To Plummet By 60% In OctoberEuropean thermal coal imports are expected to dip this month by 60% compared to October 2022, due to low demand and ample stocks, according to preliminary data from Kpler cited by Montel on Thursday. Total imports by the Netherlands, the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and France are estimated to be around 2 million tons in October, down by 2.8 million tons compared to the same month of 2022, per the preliminary data from Kpler. Ample thermal coal inventories and weak demand ahead of the peak winter heating season have depressed… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/European-Coal-Imports-Set-To-Plummet-By-60-In-October.html |
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Russia Works On Design Of New Natural Gas Pipeline To ChinaGazprom is working on the infrastructure design for a new natural gas pipeline to China from Russia’s Far East, the Russian gas giant said on Thursday. Russia and China agreed to boost Russian gas deliveries years ago, and Gazprom and Chinese state energy giants have been working for years to raise gas supply via pipelines. Gazprom supplies natural gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline. Deliveries in 2022 stood at 15 billion cubic meters, while total flows for the whole of this year are expected to rise to 22 billion cubic meters.… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Works-On-Design-Of-New-Natural-Gas-Pipeline-To-China.html |
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Venezuela Could Boost Oil Production By 25% After U.S. Eases SanctionsVenezuela could be able to raise its crude oil production by 25% from current levels if the temporary U.S. easing of the oil sanctions becomes permanent, according to a consensus forecast of analysts polled by Bloomberg. Venezuela’s oil production currently stands at around 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to various estimates. The eased sanctions would allow the South American country holding the world’s largest crude oil reserves to boost production by 200,000 bpd, analysts say, although the timing of achieving this increase… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Could-Boost-Oil-Production-By-25-After-US-Eases-Sanctions.html |
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Kinder Morgan Reports Lower-Than-Expected Profits But Remains UpbeatKinder Morgan reported a lower-than-expected net result for the third quarter of the year but said the outlook over the short term was positive, largely thanks to expectations of stronger natural gas demand. “This quarter KMI continued to benefit from strong demand for our natural gas transportation and storage services,” chief executive Kim Dang said. “And the future is bright as we 1 expect natural gas demand to grow by more than 20% through 2028, led by liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, exports to Mexico and power generation,”… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kinder-Morgan-Reports-Lower-Than-Expected-Profits-But-Remains-Upbeat.html |
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Powell says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it downPowell hinted the labor market and economic growth may need to slow to ultimately achieve the Fed’s goal. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/powell-says-inflation-is-still-too-high-and-lower-economic-growth-is-likely-needed-to-bring-it-down.html |
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Big banks are quietly cutting thousands of employees, and more layoffs are comingJob losses in finance could pressure the broader U.S. labor market in 2024. Faced with rising defaults on loans, lenders are poised to make deeper cuts. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/big-banks-cut-thousands-of-jobs-more-layoffs-coming.html |
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U.S. State Department issues ‘worldwide caution’ alert as tensions in the Middle East soarThe State Department has directed U.S. citizens who are looking for help leaving Israel, the West Bank, Gaza and Lebanon to fill out a crisis intake form. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/us-issues-worldwide-caution-as-tensions-in-the-middle-east-soar.html |
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Dow closes more than 200 points lower as 10-year Treasury yield nears 5%: Live updatesInvestors searched for insight into the central bank’s rate policy path when Fed Chair Powell spoke Thursday. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/stock-market-today-live-updates.html |
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The 10-year yield is hovering just under 5%. How you can take advantage of itInvestors were handed an income opportunity they haven’t seen in more than a decade when the 10-year Treasury climbed near 5% on Thursday. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/the-10-year-yield-is-hovering-just-under-5percent-how-you-can-take-advantage-of-it.html |
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10-year Treasury yield hovers near 16-year high as Powell talks inflation, economyThe 10-year Treasury yield rose on Thursday, hovering near a 16-year high as investors pored over remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/us-treasurys-ahead-of-fed-chair-powell-speech.html |
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Here’s how much your Social Security check may be in 2024, after the 3.2% cost-of-living adjustmentA 3.2% cost-of-living adjustment will go into effect in January for millions of Social Security beneficiaries. Here’s how you can calculate your increase. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/social-security-cola-heres-how-much-your-check-may-be-in-2024.html |
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Israel-Hamas war live updates: At least 32 Americans have been killed; Israel’s Netanyahu warns of ‘long war’Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Thursday that Israel’s conflict with Palestinian militant group Hamas will not be a short-term engagement. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/israel-hamas-war-gaza-live-updates-latest-news.html |
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Bezos-backed freight firm Convoy shuts down after slashing hundreds of jobs — read the CEO’s memo to employeesDigital freight broker Convoy announced Thursday that it’s shutting down operations due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges in the freight industry. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/bezos-backed-freight-firm-convoy-shuts-down-read-ceo-memo-here.html |
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Read the secret encrypted text messages that could help put Sam Bankman-Fried behind barsProsecutors are relying heavily on text messages sent among FTX and Alameda Research executives in the case against Sam Bankman-Fried. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/read-the-secret-signal-messages-that-could-help-put-sbf-behind-bars.html |
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New York AG demands evidence review after top Trump exec is accused of lying in fraud trialThe office of NY Attorney General Letitia James cited a report accusing former Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg of lying under oath. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/trump-fraud-trial-evidence-weisselberg.html |
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Pro-Trump lawyer Sidney Powell pleads guilty in Georgia criminal election caseSidney Powell pleaded guilty to criminal charges stemming from the GA election interference case against former President Donald Trump and others. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/pro-trump-lawyer-sidney-powell-pleads-guilty-in-georgia-criminal-election-case.html |
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How El Niño will affect the weather this winterThis winter is the first in four years that El Niño has been active as winter begins. Here’s how it will affect weather in the U.S., according to the NOAA. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/how-el-nino-will-affect-weather-this-winter.html |
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Oil Surges After Report US Destroyer Shoots Down Multiple Houthi MissilesUpdate(1458ET): A huge escalation from Iran-linked militants, just after international headlines reported Israel’s military has been given the “green light” to enter Gaza:
According to more from ABC’s senior Pentagon correspondent, US officials confirm to ABC “the destroyer USS Carney shot down multiple Houthi missiles last night. They were NOT aimed at the ship, but headed in a northerly direction.” There’s speculation that they may have been fired toward Israel in solidarity with Gaza. Israel media is reporting:
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Conservative White Professor Falsely Accused Of Harassing Black Student In Viral VideoBy Micaiah Bilger, Assistant Editor of The College Fix A black University of Dallas student’s viral video claiming a white professor “harassed” her for listening to a recorded lecture too loudly outside her office is unfounded, a campus spokeswoman said Tuesday. Clare Venegas, vice president of marketing and communications, told The College Fix officials investigated the student’s claims against history Professor Susan Hanssen in the video, which has amassed more than 7 million views on TikTok in the past week.
Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/conservative-white-professor-falsely-accused-harassing-black-student-viral-video |
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Just Kidding! Jim Jordan To Seek Third Speaker Vote After Chaos EnsuesUpdate (1515ET): Earlier Thursday, Jim Jordan said he wouldn’t hold a third ballot for speaker, and would instead let interim speaker Patrick McHenry (R-NC) hold the gavel until January – with Rep. David Joyce (R-OH) drafting legislation to give McHenry the full powers that come with the job.
This rubbed many Republicans the wrong way, as McHenry is backed by Democrats. “As I have made very clear over the last few days, we should never allow a Democrat-backed coalition government. Ever. The only coalition we should be looking to build is a Republican coalition uniting all of our conference,” said Rep. Tom Emmer. Steve Scalise, Jordan’s previous opponent for speaker who pulled out, as well as Elise Stefanik (R-NY) are also opposed to a Dem-friendly speakership going into January.
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Biden To Deliver Prime-Time Oval Office Address On Israel, UkraineFollowing a trip to Israel that did little to soothe worries of broadening conflict in the region, President Biden will address the American people from the Oval Office at 8 pm ET Thursday night, delivering a speech intended to foster Congressional support for throwing more money at not only Israel but also Ukraine. “Tomorrow, President Biden will address the nation to discuss our response to Hamas’ terrorist attacks against Israel and Russia’s ongoing brutal war against Ukraine,” said White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in a statement. Support for funding the West’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine has been sagging, particularly in the wake of a vaunted Ukraine counteroffensive that has resulted in a net loss of territory. Last month, an amendment that would prohibit any more military aid to Ukraine won the support of 93 Republicans…and zero Democrats. That was a gain of 23 votes from a similar resolution offered in July. < … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-deliver-oval-office-address-israel-ukraine |
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New warrants given to force-fit prepayment metersThe practice has been halted since February but will resume only when approval is given by Ofgem. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67156172?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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RMT union votes for six more months of rail strikesRMT boss Mick Lynch said members had provided a “decisive mandate” for further action. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67162708?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Amazon launches humanoid robots to ‘free up’ staffThe US tech giant is looking at ways it can automate more of its operations. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67163680?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Breakout Stocks: How Bajaj Auto, NBCC and Nestle India are looking on charts for Friday’s tradeThe S&P BSE Sensex fell by over 200 points while the Nifty50 managed to hold on to 19600 levels. Sectorally, buying was seen in auto, consumer durables, and FMCG stocks while metal, energy, oil & gas and power stocks saw some selling pressure Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/breakout-stocks-what-investors-should-do-with-bajaj-auto-nbcc-and-nestle-india-in-fridays-trade/articleshow/104556375.cms |
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Tech View: Nifty trading near 50-DMA. What traders should do on FridayOn the daily charts, Nifty has taken support at the 19,530 – 19,500 zone, where support in the form of 61.82% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous rise from 19333 – 19850 is placed. We expect Nifty to stage a pullback after the recent sharp correction in the past couple of days. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/tech-view-nifty-trading-near-50-dma-what-traders-should-do-on-friday/articleshow/104556169.cms |
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Suzuki’s investment in Maruti garnered 2,160x returns in 42 years. Here’s the mathSuzuki raised its stake in JV in several tranches before the IPO. By 1992, it owned around 50% stake, and right before the IPO, Suzuki owned close to 54.2%. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/suzukis-investment-in-maruti-garnered-2160x-returns-in-42-years-heres-the-math/slideshow/104556370.cms |
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Discover Financial Services’ stock is on track for its lowest close since early 2021, amid ‘some indications of stress’ among consumersShares of Discover Financial Services on Thursday were on pace for their lowest close since early 2021. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7283-CD6A9417CB6A%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Economic Report: Defense spending boosts economy as U.S. mulls more aid for Ukraine and IsraelThe U.S. economy has gotten a pop from higher defense spending since the spring. Now a new conflict in Israel as well as the Ukraine war could provide a boost. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7283-BA55F945523A%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Netflix price increase: Here’s how much the major streaming services are set to costDisney+ and Netflix have both raised their prices in the last month. Here’s how they compare to other streamers. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7283-A57FEDDDB67F%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
