Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 17 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023…An Alberta clipper will bring very gusty winds and a round of rain
across the northern Plains later today and Wednesday, spreading into the
Great Lakes Wednesday night and early Thursday……A warming trend is in store for the eastern half of the country as an
expansive cool airmass moderates……Warm and dry air across much of the western U.S. will spread into the
Plains but rainy conditions remain over the Pacific Northwest…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The weather pattern that has been sustaining an expansive area of cool air
mass across the eastern half of the country the past few days is forecast
to slowly break down during the next couple of days as an Alberta clipper
tracks into the northern Plains. Below normal temperatures that have been
felt across the central to eastern U.S. will gradually moderate as a high
pressure ridge slides eastward to reach the East Coast later on Wednesday,
allowing a reservoir of warm air over much of the western U.S. to reach
into the Great Plains. The warming process will be the slowest across the
South where the associated cold upper trough will be the last to break
down. Scattered showers will once again be found from interior New
England to the lower Great Lakes and down across the Ohio Valley this
morning with plenty of cloudiness. A slow clearing and warming trend is
expected through the next couple of days as this cool weather pattern
breaks down further.While much of the interior western U.S. has been dry, moisture associated
with a cold front ahead of an upper trough will bring windy and rainy
conditions across the Pacific Northwest and down into northwestern
California today. This latest round of rain is forecast to end later
today from Oregon southward. Farther north though, rainy weather is
expected to continue across the Olympic Peninsula for at least a couple
more days with the arrival of a warm front from the next Pacific system.
Meanwhile, a piece of the lead upper trough is penetrating farther inland,
with a round of rain and high-elevation wet snow moving across Idaho and
Montana this morning. By tonight into early Wednesday, an Alberta clipper
is forecast to slide southeastward into the far northern Plains where a
round of mostly light rain can be expected. Strong winds including
maximum gusts up to 60 mph are possible later today across parts of the
northern High Plains. This has prompted High Wind Warnings to be issued
for parts of northern and central Montana. On Wednesday, the clipper is
forecast to head east toward the upper Midwest, spreading rain into the
Great Lakes and down into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday night
and early Thursday. Meanwhile, southerly flow developing ahead of the
Alberta clipper and a lee trough near the foothills of the Rockies will
allow warm air to start filtering into the High Plains today, resulting in
afternoon high temperatures well into the 80s in the afternoon as dry
conditions continue. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will continue
over the Desert Southwest where high temperatures could top the century
mark for the next few days.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
