Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 16 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 16 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023…A cool autumn air-mass will be slow to depart the eastern half of the
country with scattered showers in parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes, and
Central Appalachians……Warm and dry across much of the western U.S. but rainy conditions over
the Pacific Northwest……A warming trend expected in the Great Plains as a round of rain reaches
into the northern Plains late Tuesday…
| Notices: We just published a review of September weather worldwide and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
An expansive area of north to northwesterly flow between a departing storm
system off the Canadian Maritimes and a high pressure ridge axis anchored
over the High Plains will continue to direct a dome a cool autumn air mass
farther south toward the Gulf Coast. One more morning of below freezing
temperatures can be expected over the central High Plains today before the
reservoir of warm air over much of the western U.S begins to slowly filter
into the Great Plains. The warming process, however, will be slow to
occur as the weather pattern that sustains the massive dome of cool autumn
air over the eastern half of the country takes time to break down. Under
this weather pattern, scattered showers will once again be found today
from interior New England to the lower Great Lakes, down across the Ohio
Valley, and as farther south as the southern Appalachians. Even some wet
snow is possible near the peaks of the central and southern Appalachians
through Tuesday morning. The rain should hold off along the Eastern
Seaboard but partly to occasionally mostly cloudy condition will prevail
today before the high pressure ridge finally slides across the region
later on Tuesday with a better chance of seeing breaks in the clouds.While much of the interior western U.S. has been dry, moisture associated
with a pair of fronts ahead of an upper trough will bring windy and rainy
conditions into the Pacific Northwest and down into the northwestern
California today. This latest round of rain is forecast to end later on
Tuesday from Oregon southward but the Olympic Peninsula in Washington will
remain rainy through Wednesday morning with the arrival of a warm front
well ahead of the next Pacific system. Meanwhile, a piece of the lead
upper trough will penetrate farther inland, bringing a round of rain and
high-elevation wet snow across Idaho and Montana Monday night into early
Tuesday. By Tuesday night into early Wednesday, an Alberta clipper is
forecast to slide southeastward into the far northern Plains where a round
of rain can be expected. Southerly flow developing ahead of the Alberta
clipper and a lee trough near the foothills of the Rockies will allow warm
air to filter into the High Plains on Tuesday, resulting in afternoon high
temperatures well into the 80s by Tuesday afternoon with dry conditions
continue. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will continue over the
Desert Southwest where high temperatures will top the century mark for the
next few days.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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