Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 15 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 15 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023…Departing deep storm will usher cooler and damp autumn weather
throughout the eastern half of the country with areas of showers lingering
over the Northeast, lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into southern
Appalachians……Warm and dry across much of the western U.S. but rainy conditions
continue over the Pacific Northwest…
| Notices: We just published a review of September weather worldwide and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
An explosively deepening low pressure system off the coast of the northern
Mid-Atlantic early this Sunday morning will continue to move out to sea.
Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms associated with this system are
expected to stay offshore and move farther away from the East Coast. In
the wake of the deep storm, much of the eastern half of the country will
be under the influence of a cool, expansive, but unstable air stream from
north. Breezy to windy conditions are expected to prevail across a big
chunk of the central to eastern U.S. at least through Monday with areas of
rain showers that tend to linger over New England and the lower Great
Lakes where instability will be greatest due to lingering upper-level
troughing pivoting southward from eastern Canada. Some of the rain is
forecast to push southward into the Ohio Valley and toward the southern
Appalachians with lingering cloudiness for a couple more days. This cool
and damp weather regime should begin to break down by Monday night into
early Tuesday when winds are forecast to begin to subside and showers
begin to taper off. Meanwhile, partly sunny conditions can be expected
along the East Coast as air sliding down the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians helps warming and drying out the cool and damp air mass
somewhat.Meanwhile, a cool but dry couple of days are in store through the
mid-section of the country under the influence of a high pressure ridge.
In contrast, warm and dry weather will continue through much of the
western U.S. for the next few days. The exception will be across the
Pacific Northwest and initially near coastal northern California where
rainy and windy conditions are expected to continue. Some of the rain is
forecast to penetrate inland into the northern Rockies late Monday into
early Tuesday as a cold front and the associated upper trough advance
toward the northern High Plains.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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