Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 12 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 12 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023…Significant weather system to bring heavy rainfall, severe weather, and
even higher elevation snow from the Rockies into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes……Heavy rain/flash flooding and severe weather likely to continue into
Thursday for parts of the Gulf Coast and northern Florida…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A low pressure system exiting into the Plains is expected to intensify
while ushering in a myriad of hazardous weather through the end of the
week. For portions of the Central Plains and Midwest that are along and
north of the associated warm front there will be increasing coverage of
thunderstorms that will carry the threat for severe weather and flash
flooding. The Storm Prediction Center and the Weather Prediction Center
have Marginal and Slight Risks in place for Thursday with the area
shifting eastward on Friday. Severe thunderstorms is expected late
Thursday afternoon into the overnight for portions of eastern Nebraska
into eastern Kansas with flash flooding becoming a concern to the north,
in/around the Middle Missouri River Valley. Heavy rainfall should spread
north and eastward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday with a
threat for flash flooding/excessive rainfall.Temperatures will fall to well below seasonal normal in the wake of this
system which should be cold enough to support accumulating snow in the
higher elevations of the Central/Northern Rockies through Thursday. This
colder airmass will filter into the High Plains which may allow rain to
mix with or change to snow over portions of the Central High Plains. To
the south and east of this system, much above normal temperatures will
overspread the Southern Plains, into the Midwest and East through Friday
with afternoon maximums in the 70s likely or even the 80s for some.An area of low pressure along a warm front in the Gulf of Mexico will
interact with a surge in tropical moisture to continue a threat for heavy
rainfall along portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast and southern
portions of the Southeastern states. Many locations could see 2 to 4
inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible across the Florida
panhandle and northern Florida peninsula. Instability near the frontal
boundary itself should allow for a threat for severe weather as well
across northern Florida.Farther north, a closed low which has been nearly stationary for the past
few days just north the Great Lakes will finally begin to move east.
Showers beneath the closed low will continue downwind of the Great Lakes
region on Thursday, but the rest of the Northeast should be mostly dry
except for some light showers across northern Vermont to Maine. Cooler
than average temperatures will persist into the end of the week underneath
this upper low as it slides eastward.Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
