Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 11 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the western U.S. into
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest while above average
temperatures shift into parts of the central/southern Plains and Ohio
Valley……Increased orida…threat for heavy rain and flash flooding for portions of
Nebraska/South Dakota into the Upper Midwest and along the east-central
Gulf Coast into northern Fl…Severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the central Plains today
and Thursday…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
An upper level trough will move across the western U.S. today, emerging
over the central Plains for Thursday. Behind the eastward moving
associated cold front, high temperature departures of 10 to 20 degrees
below mid-October averages will be found today and Thursday, supporting
accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the central to northern
Rockies and light to moderate rain elsewhere across the West. As colder
air reaches the High Plains on Thursday, rain is expected to mix with or
change to snow for portions of the central High Plains. Across the higher
elevations of the Black Hills of South Dakota, snowfall accumulations of
over 6 inches will be possible by Friday morning.Along and north of a warm front, extending eastward across the central
Plains into the Midwest, rain/thunderstorm coverage will increase during
the evening and overnight tonight. A few of the storms could become severe
from Nebraska into Iowa and Illinois while also posing a threat of flash
flooding from high rainfall rates. Areas of heavy rain will continue over
the central Plains and Midwest on Thursday with a renewed surge in
convective intensity occurring near the Nebraska surface low during the
afternoon. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected late Thursday
afternoon into the overnight for portions of eastern Nebraska into eastern
Kansas with flash flooding becoming a concern to the north, in and around
the Middle Missouri River Valley.Across the southern tier of the U.S., a surface low along a warm front in
Gulf of Mexico will lift northward today, coinciding with a surge in
tropical moisture across the Gulf Coast region. Areas of rain will
increase in coverage and intensity late this afternoon with the heaviest
rain expected from the central to eastern Gulf Coast into southern
portions Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina overnight. Two to four inches
of rain, with locally higher totals possible, is expected from far
southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida
through Thursday morning.Farther north, a closed low which has been nearly stationary for the past
few days just north the Great Lakes will finally begin to move east today.
Showers beneath the closed low will continue across the Great Lakes region
for one more day today followed by a temporary break in precipitation on
Thursday. However, cooler than average temperatures will persist into the
end of the week and more rain will approach from the southwest, spreading
northeastward from southern portions of Lake Michigan late Thursday into
Thursday night.Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
