Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 09 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift from the Interior West into the Great Plains……Below average temperatures continue for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
while lake effect showers persist through Tuesday……Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for southern Texas on Tuesday…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Warm/hot and dry weather will come to an end for the West Coast today as a
Pacific cold front moves inland. Light to occasionally moderate rain will
overspread northern California, western Oregon/Washington late this
morning into the afternoon. High temperatures will also be 10 to 20
degrees colder today compared to Sunday from northern California into
western Washington, but locations from the Intermountain West to the High
Plains will continue to see above average warmth for at least one more
day. Another cold front will reach the western U.S. on Tuesday as the
first continues to advance into the central Rockies, bringing
precipitation to the northern Great Basin, central/northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains along with snow for the higher elevations of the
West. Below average temperatures (10 to 25 degrees below average) will
gradually shift to the east across portions of the western U.S. through
mid-week.A slow moving closed low aloft, centered just north of the Great Lakes,
will keep cooler than average temperatures in the forecast for the Great
Lakes region, Ohio Valley and portions of the Northeast today. Lake effect
rain showers will also persist downwind of the Great Lakes, but rainfall
intensity is expected to be lighter than what was observed over the
weekend. The cooler than average temperatures will linger into mid-week
for the Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast as the closed low
remains in place.Across the southern tier of the U.S., a stationary front in the Gulf of
Mexico will begin to lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday. This will
support an increase in deep moisture along the Texas Gulf Coast.
Meanwhile, what is expected to become Hurricane Lidia in the eastern
Pacific and Tropical Storm Max (located south of Guerrero, Mexico) should
begin approaching the Mexican coast over the next 1-2 days, supporting an
increase in tropical moisture in the middle and upper levels of the
atmosphere, spreading downstream toward Texas and the western Gulf of
Mexico. While specific details remain unknown at this time, portions of
southern Texas could receive a few inches of rain through Tuesday night,
some of which could fall at a high intensity, supporting a risk for flash
flooding across southern Texas.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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