Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 08 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023…Heavy rain from the remnants of Philippe will come to an end across
Maine this morning but lingering areas of flooding and gusty winds will
remain into the day……Below average temperatures for much of the Great Lakes and eastern U.S.
along with lake effect rain showers and thunderstorms downwind of the
Great Lakes……Colder and wetter weather to arrive on the West Coast Monday, but above
average warmth to remain for the Interior West and Rockies..
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A swath of heavy rain over Maine early this morning, tied to what was
formerly Tropical Storm Philippe, will move into the Canadian Maritimes by
this afternoon, leaving behind areas of flooding from roughly three to
five inches of rain which impacted the region. Gusty winds will remain
during the day, especially over northern Maine, but these too should begin
to subside throughout the afternoon.Cool, fall-like temperatures will remain over the Great Lakes and east of
the Mississippi River over the next couple of days, as a large closed low
in the upper levels of the atmosphere remains situated over southeastern
Canada, just north of the Great Lakes. High temperatures will be 10 to 20
degrees below average from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast today, with some moderation of temperatures on Monday but
remaining below average. With the cold air passing over the relatively
warm waters of Great Lakes, lake effect showers and thunderstorms will be
common for locations downwind (south and east). A favorable wind fetch
across Lake Ontario will support persistent and heavy rain at times for
areas immediately southeast and east of the lake, allowing for one to
three inches (locally higher) which may result in localized areas of
flooding today and tonight.With the exception of isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms for central
Arizona into New Mexico, warm and dry conditions will continue for the
central and western U.S. today. High temperatures are expected to be about
10 to 20 degrees above average for most everyone west of the High Plains
today, but the arrival of a Pacific cold front will bring colder
temperatures and rain for locations extending from northern California to
western Washington starting Monday morning. Cooler temperatures will
spread from west to east into the Great Basin behind a cold front for
Monday into Tuesday but warm weather with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s
will remain for locations just east of the Continental Divide into the
Central Plains.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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