Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 07 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023…Remnants of Philippe to bring heavy rainfall with the risk of flash
flooding as well as gusty winds to the Northeast through early Sunday
morning……Much cooler temperatures to spread eastward from the central U.S. into
much of the eastern U.S. this weekend……Much above average temperatures and dry conditions for the West…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A large upper level trough, extending from the Great Lakes to the
Tennessee Valley, will continue to move east today, eventually closing off
from the main jet stream and becoming a large closed low over much of the
eastern half of the nation for Sunday. Ahead of the upper trough, a cold
front will move into the Northeast today, bringing areas of slow moving
heavy rain to portions of eastern New York and western New England. Some
locations could receive over 3 inches of rain through Saturday night
posing a risk for flash flooding. This includes New York City and
surrounding areas into southern New England which remain sensitive to
runoff given heavy rain across the region from the end of September.
Meanwhile, the surface low from former Tropical Storm Philippe will track
into New England and the Canadian Maritimes tonight, becoming absorbed
into the closed low aloft. The approach of the surface low will coincide
with a surge of heavy rain which is likely to impact areas of Maine with
3-5 inches of rain later today through Sunday morning along with gusty
winds which could gust as high as 50 mph.As the cold front sweeps eastward into the Atlantic Ocean, much colder
temperatures will follow in its wake. Folks in the central and northern
Plains will wake up to sub-freezing temperatures and/or frost this morning
and high temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average from the
Great Plains to the Appalachians. The core of the cold air will move into
the Midwest for Sunday with similar 10-20 degree temperature anomalies.
The cold air will promote lake effect showers and thunderstorms downwind
of the Great Lakes, but surface temperatures will remain too warm for
snow. Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will also be possible for
portions of central and southeastern Florida today/tonight as the cold
front moves through.Much of the remainder of the country will be free from precipitation
except for some isolated thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest. Breezy
conditions and low relative humidity will increase the threat for the
spreading of wildfires today from the Gulf Coast states into portions of
the Southeast. Temperatures will be about 10-20 degrees above average for
locations along and west of the Rockies this weekend due to the influence
of a large upper level ridge in place. Some rain will likely begin to
impact the Pacific Northwest early Monday morning with the approach of a
cold front but the weekend should remain warm to hot and dry.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
