Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 05 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Thursday and the Northeast on Friday……There is a Freeze Watch over parts of the Northern Plains overnight
Thursday……Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Northeast…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will slowly
move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday. A secondary front
moving southward from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains on
Thursday will move southward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Friday
and reinforce the lead front. Tropical moisture over the Western Gulf
Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain
over the Texas coast, Louisiana coast, southern Mississippi, and
southwestern Alabama. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Western/Central Gulf Coast Valley
through Friday morning. The associated moderate to heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.Moreover, the boundary will create showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Great Lakes southward to the Gulf Coast on Thursday. The boundary over
the Upper Midwest will create rain over parts of the Northern Plains that
will move into the Upper Great Lakes by Thursday evening. Overnight
Thursday into Friday, lake-enhanced rain showers will develop across parts
of the Great Lakes.Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will taper off overnight
Thursday over the Western Gulf Coast. On Friday, rain will develop along
the front from the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast, producing moderate to
heavy rain over parts of New York State, Pennsylvania, northern West
Virginia, northern New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northeast,
Lower Great Lakes, and Central Appalachians from Friday through Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.Meanwhile, on Thursday, onshore flow off the Atlantic will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida. Overnight
Thursday, onshore flow will stream moisture into parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic, producing scattered rain showers over parts of the region
through late Friday night.Furthermore, upper-level ridging extends from the Southeast to the
Northeast, will allow temperatures to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal
over parts of the Northeast. In contrast, cold air flowing southward over
the Northern Plains has prompted a Freeze Watch over the region Thursday
night into Friday morning.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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