Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 03 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western
Gulf Coast on Tuesday and over the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday……There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Wednesday……Snow over parts of the highest elevations of Wyoming…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A front extending from the Northern Plains southward to the Southern High
Plains will slowly move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern
High Plains by Thursday. Moisture will pool along the boundary, producing
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Plains. Therefore, the
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an increased threat of
hail two inches or greater over parts of the Central/Southern Plains.Moreover, moisture streaming onshore over the Western Gulf Coast will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western Gulf
Coast through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.The threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly on Wednesday. The
front will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Upper Great Lakes
southward to the Southern Plains. However, the showers and thunderstorms
will become severe over parts of Northwestern Texas and southwestern
Oklahoma. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Wednesday into
Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.Additionally, on Wednesday, the threat of excessive rainfall will move
from the Western Gulf Coast to northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, Western Arkansas, and extreme northwestern
Louisiana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Meanwhile, upper-level troughing associated with the front will aid in
creating rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern California,
Northern Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies on Tuesday. The energy
will also create snow at the highest elevations over parts of Wyoming. On
Wednesday, the lingering upper-level troughing will keep rain and
highest-elevation snow over parts of the Northern Rockies.Furthermore, the upper-level troughing over the Rockies will allow
temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the Great
Basin, the Northern Intermountain Region, and the Northern Rockies. East
of the upper-level troughing, upper-level ridging extends from the Gulf
Coast to the Upper Great Lakes that will allow temperatures to be 15 to 25
degrees above normal over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper
Great Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes,
and the Northeast.Lastly, onshore flow off the Atlantic will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Florida from late Tuesday into Thursday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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