Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 29 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 29 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England……Moderate snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains above 9000ft on
Saturday……Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of
California, the Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest on Saturday…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
On Friday, low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will slowly move
northward to just south of Long Island, New York, then push eastward out
over the Western Atlantic by Sunday. The low will pull moist air off the
Atlantic, producing areas of heavy rain over parts of northeastern New
Jersey, extreme southeastern New York State/Long Island, and Connecticut.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England. The associated
heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. In addition,
upper-level energy associated with the low will produce scattered rain
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast on Friday and Saturday.Meanwhile, tropical moisture over Florida and upper-level energy will
create showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Sunday
morning. Additionally, a weak front over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley will move into the Upper Great Lakes and
dissipate by Friday evening. The system will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest through Sunday.Furthermore, upper-level energy over the North Pacific will move
southeastward over California, creating an upper-level low by Saturday
evening. Rain will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest early on
Friday morning. Overnight Friday, the rain will move into California and
parts of the Great Basin. As the upper-level trough deepens, snow levels
will drop over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. On Saturday, the rain
moves into parts of Southern California while at elevations above 9000ft,
moderate snow will develop over the Sierra Nevada Mountains with rain at
lower elevations. The precipitation will continue through Sunday morning.
Moreover, the upper-level troughing will allow temperatures to be 10 to 20
degrees below average over parts of California, the Great Basin, and the
Pacific Northwest on Saturday.As the deep trough develops over the country’s western half, moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico will move northwestward over the Southern High Plains.
The moisture and upper-level energy will aid in creating showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains
overnight Friday. On Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Southern High Plains into parts of the Central
High Plains.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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