Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 28 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 28 2023 – 12Z Sat Sep 30 2023…Heavy rain and flash flooding possible across parts of the Northeast on
Friday……Wet weather pattern continues throughout Florida and the Northwest…
…Well above average temperatures expected across the central Plains and
parts of the Midwest…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Damp and dreary weather is forecast to return to the Northeast by this
evening and linger through Friday as an area of low pressure develops
offshore. This low pressure system will help a stream elevated atmospheric
moisture content from the Atlantic Ocean towards the northern Mid-Atlantic
States. After light showers and drizzle overspread much of the region
tonight, pockets of heavier rain may develop by Friday morning between New
Jersey and western Connecticut. A localized area of enhanced convergence
may provide enough lift in the atmosphere to support continuing downpours
through much of the day on Friday. Additionally, any instances of
potentially heavy rain are not anticipated to move quickly and could
linger over the same region for hours. As a result, flash flooding is
possible and prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall to
be issued from southern New Jersey to southern Connecticut, including the
Lower Hudson Valley and Long Island. Urban locations, which are prevalent
in this area, will be most prone to rapid water rises and flooding
concerns. Residents and visitors are advised to remain weather aware and
never drive through flooded roadways.Farther south along a slow moving frontal boundary draped across the
Florida Peninsula, daily shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to
continue through at least the beginning of the weekend. The main weather
hazards associated with the developing thunderstorms will be frequent
lighting and heavy rain. Intense rainfall rates could lead to localized
flooding concerns, mainly over urban corridors, which is highlighted by a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall.Pockets of unsettled weather are also in the forecast over the next few
days over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, Upper Midwest, Northwest, and
southern High Plains. Starting in the Northwest, a deep upper trough
diving into the West Coast by Saturday will allow for showers to become
more widespread after days of scattered rain chances. Cool temperatures
and precipitation should span from central California through the
Intermountain West and northern Great Basin. The highest elevations of the
Sierra Nevada, northern Cascades, and northwest Montana could see
accumulating snowfall as upper level temperatures cool to around freezing.
Meanwhile, one more day of wet weather conditions is anticipated over the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys today as a weakening low pressure system and
stationary front linger over the region. A few storms could overlap and
contain heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding for
Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Localized flooding concerns are also in the
forecast on Friday across central/northern Minnesota and Saturday over
eastern New Mexico and Wet Texas as robust thunderstorms cross these parts
of the country.Outside of the cooler conditions located throughout the West,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, a majority of the Nation will see well above
average temperatures build into the beginning of the weekend. The warmest
temperature anomalies are expected to be found across the central Plains
and parts of Midwest. High temperatures here are forecast to reach into
the 80s and low 90s, which equates to around 20 degrees above climatology
for late-September. Afternoon highs into the 80s and 90s will also stretch
into the middle and lower Mississippi valleys, as well as the Southern
Plains.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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