28Sep2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: An Up Day For The Markets With Oil Prices Moderating

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 116 points or 0.35%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.83%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.59%,
  • Gold $1884 down $7.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $92 down $1.93,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.557% down 0.049 points,
  • USD index $106.16 up $0.50,
  • Bitcoin $27,132 up $775

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The third estimate of 2Q2023 real gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged showing GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.1%. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2% (revised). The third estimate primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. There was also no change to the PCE price index which is 2.5%.

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity declined somewhat in September 2023. The month-over-month composite index was -8 in September, down from 0 in August and up slightly from -11 in July. The decline from last month was primarily driven by decreases in durable goods, particularly metal manufacturing.

The National Association of REALTORS Pending home sales slid 7.1% in August 2023. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. All four U.S. regions posted monthly losses and year-over-year declines in transactions. This decline is significant as year-over-year sales are down 18.7% – the existing home sales have collapsed. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist stated:

Mortgage rates have been rising above 7% since August, which has diminished the pool of home buyers. Some would-be home buyers are taking a pause and readjusting their expectations about the location and type of home to better fit their budgets.

United States Pending Home Sales YoY

In the week ending September 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 217,000 to 217,250.

CoreLogic’s monthly Loan Performance Insights Report for July 2023 shows 2.7% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.3 percentage point decrease compared with 3% in July 2022 and a 0.1% increase from June 2023. CoreLogic projects that home price growth will pick up over the next year. There is no indication of stress in home loan performance.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Fall After 2-Day Rise
  • Revolutionary Nickel-Gold Thermoelectric Surpasses Semiconductors
  • U.S. Says Chinese Minerals Control Will Make Energy Security More Complex
  • China’s Latest Move Could Further Raise Global Diesel Prices
  • EIA Cuts U.S. Hydropower Generation Forecast By 6% For 2023
  • Saudi Arabia May Start Unwinding Its Production Cuts Sooner Than Expected
  • History shows a September stock sell-off typically begets a fourth-quarter rally
  • New Orleans residents brace for salt water intrusion as Biden declares national emergency
  • California School District Considers Removing Honors Courses For Sake Of “Equity”
  • Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Clean Hydrogen Dreams Delayed By Rising Costs

There is currently not enough funding and support for hydrogen projects to roll it out on the scale they require to achieve the net-zero scenario by 2050, according to several energy experts. The widespread rollout of clean hydrogen projects has been restricted due to the high costs involved with producing the clean energy source, which is much more expensive to make than dirtier forms of hydrogen derived from fossil fuels. In addition, while companies worldwide are showing increasing interest in green hydrogen, many are failing to get the government…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Clean-Hydrogen-Dreams-Delayed-By-Rising-Costs.html

Oil Prices Fall After 2-Day Rise

Crude oil prices fell on Thursday after rising on Tuesday and Wednesday, with Brent retreating shortly before reaching $98 per barrel. The price of a Brent barrel sank 1.69% on Thursday by 2:58 pm ET, a $1.63 loss on the day to $94.92. The November contract for WTI fell $2.10 per barrel (-2.24%) to $91.58, after reaching $94.89 on Wednesday following the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report that showed a 2.2 million barrel decline in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending September 22, in tandem with a drop in crude inventories stored…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-Hard-After-2-Day-Rise.html

Revolutionary Nickel-Gold Thermoelectric Surpasses Semiconductors

Researchers at the Vienna University of Technology discovered excellent thermoelectric properties of nickel-gold alloys. These can be used to efficiently convert heat into electrical energy. The researchers have published their results in the journal Science Advances. Thermoelectrics enable the direct conversion of heat into electrical energy – and vice versa. This makes them interesting for a range of technological applications. In the search for thermoelectric materials with the best possible properties, a research team…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Revolutionary-Nickel-Gold-Thermoelectric-Surpasses-Semiconductors.html

European Demand Dilemma Delays Azerbaijan Gas Export Boost

Plans agreed last year by Azerbaijan and the European Union for Baku to double the volume of gas it sends to Europe to 20 billion cubic metres a year are on hold as European gas buyers have yet to confirm they’ll take the gas. Speaking to reporters at a round table meeting in the Turkish capital Ankara on September 14, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar confirmed that his ministry had instructed the operator of the TANAP pipeline which carries Azeri gas across Turkey to Greece, to prepare to expand the pipeline to its full 31 billion cubic…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/European-Demand-Dilemma-Delays-Azerbaijan-Gas-Export-Boost.html

U.S. Says Chinese Minerals Control Will Make Energy Security More Complex

China’s dominance in critical minerals mining and processing will make global energy security in the energy transition “infinitely more complex,” U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said at a conference on Thursday. “The fuel of this energy transition — critical minerals — is going to make global energy security infinitely more complex and infinitely more important over the next few decades,” Granholm told the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) critical minerals summit, as carried by the Financial…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Says-Chinese-Minerals-Control-Will-Make-Energy-Security-More-Complex.html

Gold And Silver Prices Teeter Near Support Zones

Via Metal Miner Month-over-month, the Precious Metals MMI (Monthly Metals Index) witnessed almost no movement and narrowly missed trading flat. Indeed, the index remained sideways, only dropping by a slight 0.11%. That said, the Fed’s stance on holding interest rates at an elevated level could impact precious metal prices in the near future. Interestingly enough, scrap precious metal prices (namely gold) experienced a bit of a spike at the beginning of August. Precious metal prices also initiated a climb starting September 15, but ultimately…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Gold/Gold-And-Silver-Prices-Teeter-Near-Support-Zones.html

China’s Latest Move Could Further Raise Global Diesel Prices

China may not issue additional fuel export quotas this year, which could further raise global diesel prices amid tight supplies and a still unknown duration of a Russian export ban currently in force. The Chinese authorities have already told the biggest oil refiners in the world’s top crude oil importer not to rely on more fuel export quotas for the rest of the year, unnamed sources with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg on Thursday. So far this year, China has issued three batches of fuel export quotas to its major refiners…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Latest-Move-Could-Further-Raise-Global-Diesel-Prices.html

The Next Hurdle In Armenia And Azerbaijan’s Contentious Negotiations

Negotiations over a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan are continuing, even as refugees continue to stream into Armenia following Azerbaijan’s military assault on the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh last week. Senior advisers to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met on September 26 in Brussels, in preparation for a potential meeting between the leaders themselves in Spain on October 5. A peace deal could — at least on paper — put to rest the decades-old conflict between the two sides. But…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-Next-Hurdle-In-Armenia-And-Azerbaijans-Contentious-Negotiations.html

EIA Cuts U.S. Hydropower Generation Forecast By 6% For 2023

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reduced on Thursday its forecast for U.S. hydropower generation by 6% this year compared to 2022, as much lower generation in the Northwest would more than offset an increase in California’s hydropower output. Since the spring, higher-than-normal temperatures have slashed hydropower generation in the Northwest, which accounts for half of the U.S. hydropower generation, the EIA said. While the water supply outlook in the Northwest for the 2023 summer looked good last autumn and winter,…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EIA-Cuts-US-Hydropower-Generation-Forecast-By-6-For-2023.html

Aramco Looks To Expand Position In LNG With New Deal

Saudi Aramco, the world’s foremost national oil and gas company, has boosted its investment activity with the announcement of the acquisition of a minority stake in U.S.-based MidOcean Energy, owned by EIG, a prominent institutional investor in energy and infrastructure sectors. This development has taken many by surprise, considering Aramco’s historical focus on oil, despite its substantial reserves of natural and associated gas in Saudi Arabia. Aramco has been actively positioning itself as a prominent International National Oil Company (INOC),…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Aramco-Looks-To-Expand-Position-In-LNG-With-New-Deal.html

Germany Closing In On $21-Billion Deal To Buy Its Largest Grid

The German government is close to agreeing a deal to buy its biggest grid from TenneT in a deal estimated at around $21 billion (20 billion euros), as Germany looks to strengthen its transmission systems with the rise in renewable capacity, sources with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Thursday. In February this year, Dutch state-owned operator Tennet Holding said that it was exploring a potential sale of its German activities to the German State. “TenneT intends to engage in discussions with the German government, to explore the…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Germany-Closing-In-On-21-Billion-Deal-To-Buy-Its-Largest-Grid.html

IEA Faces Backlash Over Bold 2030 Oil Demand Forecast

The credibility of the International Energy Agency continues to wane as it continues to advocate for an urgent shift towards a decarbonized economy. According to the IEA, global fossil fuel demand must decline 25% by the decade’s end to ensure the world is on track for net zero by 2050. However, Christyan Malek, JPMorgan’s head of EMEA energy equity research, recently shared a note with clients about an emerging “very volatile supercycle” for fossil fuel, where demand is set to rise through 2030, sparking what he believes could be a massive global…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/IEA-Faces-Backlash-Over-Bold-2030-Oil-Demand-Forecast.html

Saudi Arabia May Start Unwinding Its Production Cuts Sooner Than Expected

Saudi Arabia could begin easing its production cut sooner than oil market participants believe as the world’s top crude oil exporter wouldn’t risk demand destruction through too high prices, consultancy Rapidan Energy Group says.   Due to the Saudi and OPEC+ cuts and falling commercial crude inventories in the U.S., oil prices climbed to their highest levels in months in early trade on Thursday —the U.S. benchmark jumped to a 13-month high and Brent hit the highest price since November 2022 and a new high for 2023. Early…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-May-Start-Unwinding-Its-Production-Cuts-Sooner-Than-Expected.html

Russia Sells Urals Oil To India At $20 Above The Price Cap

Tightening global crude supply and rising international prices have raised the price at which Russia’s crude is being sold to India at about $20 per barrel over the G7 price cap of $60, traders have told Reuters. The Russian flagship crude grade, Urals, is being sold to one of Moscow’s top customers, India, at nearly $80 per barrel now, or around 30% above the price cap set by the G7 and the EU if Russian crude shipments to third countries outside the EU are to use Western insurance and financing. Data from traders and Reuters calculations…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Sells-Urals-Oil-To-India-At-20-Above-The-Price-Cap.html

Saudi Aramco Enters International LNG Market

Saudi Aramco is entering the global LNG business by signing a deal to buy a minority stake in LNG company MidOcean Energy, which is in the process of acquiring interests in four Australian LNG projects, the Saudi state oil giant said on Thursday. Aramco has signed the definitive agreements to buy a strategic minority stake in MidOcean Energy for $500 million, which is the Saudi firm’s first international investment in LNG. MidOcean Energy is formed and managed by EIG, an institutional investor in the global energy and infrastructure sectors,…

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-Enters-International-LNG-Market.html

Delivering Alpha live updates: Tech investor Brad Gerstner calls AI a ‘supercycle’ like the rise of internet

CNBC’s Delivering Alpha: Market-moving news from top Wall Street stock and bond managers, tech and real estate investors, and hedge fund icon Bill Ackman.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/delivering-alpha-live-updates-top-investors-on-the-market-outlook.html

AMD’s stock pops after Microsoft tech chief touts chipmaker’s AI products

AMD and Microsoft have collaborated for years on computers, consoles and the cloud, and are doing more work together now in artificial intelligence.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/amd-stock-pops-after-microsoft-cto-touts-chipmakers-ai-products.html

Brad Gerstner says AI will be bigger than the internet, bigger than mobile

“We’re at the beginning of one of the biggest tech booms in the history of technology,” Altimeter Capital Chair and CEO Brad Gerstner said.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/brad-gerstner-says-ai-is-going-to-be-bigger-than-the-internet-bigger-than-mobile.html

EEOC sues Tesla alleging widespread racist harassment of Black workers, retaliation against those who spoke out

A federal agency has sued Tesla over alleged widespread racist harassment of Black workers, retaliation against those who spoke out about the issues.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/eeoc-sues-tesla-alleging-widespread-racist-harassment-of-black-workers.html

History shows a September stock sell-off typically begets a fourth-quarter rally

September’s sell-off may have unnerved many investors after a hot start to the year. But history shows such pullbacks are pretty common.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/history-shows-a-september-sell-off-begets-a-fourth-quarter-rally-.html

BlackRock’s Rieder thinks investors should believe the Fed that it’s going to hike again

BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder thinks the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates, though it probably won’t.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/blackrocks-rieder-thinks-investors-should-believe-the-fed-that-its-going-to-hike-again.html

Trump New York fraud trial cleared to start Monday after appeals panel ruling

Donald Trump, two of his adult sons and the Trump Organization are accused by the New York attorney general of misstating the values of many real estate assets.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/trump-new-york-fraud-trial-cleared-to-start-monday-after-appeals-panel-ruling.html

NFL tells X it’s concerned about placement of ads on white nationalist accounts

The NFL responded to a report that its ads appeared on several white nationalist X accounts, saying it had reached out to the company to “rectify the issue.”

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/nfl-concerned-about-ads-on-white-nationalist-accounts.html

This is one of the most resilient real estate areas, according to the world’s largest commercial property owner

Blackstone sees opportunities in this prominent housing rental market as demand surges.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/this-is-one-of-the-most-resilient-real-estate-areas-according-to-the-worlds-largest-commercial-property-owner-.html

Epic Games is eliminating 16% of its workforce and selling Bandcamp

Epic Games said on Thursday that it’s laying off 16% of its workforce and is selling Bandcamp, which it acquired last year.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/epic-games-is-eliminating-16percent-of-its-workforce-and-selling-bandcamp.html

Costco is selling gold bars and they are selling out within a few hours

The retail warehousing giant is your one-stop shop for 1 ounce gold bars, handsomely detailed and ready for purchase.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/costco-is-selling-gold-bars-and-they-are-selling-out-within-a-few-hours.html

New Orleans residents brace for salt water intrusion as Biden declares national emergency

The saltwater intrusion is expected to hit key water treatment plants by the end of October.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/biden-national-emergency-new-orleans-saltwater-intrusion.html

Speaker McCarthy criticizes Senate measure, says House will get bill done to avoid shutdown

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., criticized a Senate bill aimed at funding the government, noting the measure would not bolster border security.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/house-speaker-mccarthy-criticizes-senate-measure-says-house-will-get-bill-done-to-avoid-shutdown.html

Watch: AOC Claims Illegal Immigrants Are Actually Legal When They Seek Asylum

The political left is obsessed with wordplay and the manipulation of definitions, this much is clear.  From their point of view, words are power because words have influence; that is to say, they think if they can control words they can also control perception, control the law and ultimately control the public.  This tactic may be somewhat delusional in that it assumes the public has no ability to discern nuance, but they have had some success with it in decades past so they stick with what they know.

In terms of illegal immigration, leftists have long sought to change the American vocabulary.  Specifically, they have for years tried to remove the word “illegal” from discourse.  You can call them refugees, you can call them undocumented, you can call them asylum seekers, but you can’t call them illegal.  For a short time (between 2016-2020) using the term “illegal immigrant” was considered cause to demonitize YouTube commentators or get user accounts locked on social media.

The tide has turned back on open borders advocates in the past few years with woke ideology widely exposed as a political cult (according to recent polls the majority of Americans view illegal immigration as an invasion).  This has compelled leftists to try a different angle, in which they use narrow legal categories as a means to muddy the waters on immigrants.

This method involves the use of asylum status as a modifier – In other words, if an illegal immigra …

Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-aoc-claims-illegal-immigrants-are-actually-legal-when-they-seek-asylum

The Psychology Of Inflation: What Makes You Say, “No Way Am I Paying That”?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Value varies. Invest in what’s valuable.

It’s a well-recognized human bias to feel losses more acutely than gains. Perhaps something similar occurs with inflation. As essentials soar in cost–i.e. non-discretionary expenses such as shelter, food at home, utilities, childcare, healthcare insurance, etc.–our only response is sighing resignation: yes, it’s a ripoff but there’s little we can do about it without making major changes in our lives.

Discretionary purchases are a different matter. The pleasures gained by the purchase are significant enough to be worth the financial cost. But at some point–a point that varies with each individual–the cost is so high that the pain of that expense outweighs the pleasure of the purchase.

This may explain why the public mood is sour despite the rosy statis …

Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/psychology-inflation-what-makes-you-say-no-way-am-i-paying

Killing Of Baltimore Tech CEO Is Yet Another Failure Of ‘Soft-On-Crime’ Policies Pushed By Democrats

Authorities in Baltimore City, plagued with out-of-control crime, “initially withheld details” from the public that a convicted felon raped and set fire to a person last week. For some reason, officials felt the need to leave out the “rape” part of the crime – just calling it an “arson.” The felon went on to murder a young tech CEO on Monday. Adding to the disgust, officials freed the man last fall, having served only seven years of a 30-year sentence.

Local media outlet Baltimore Banner said registered sex offender Jason Billingsley,32, kicked down the door of a home last Tuesday in West Baltimore and “pointed a gun at two people inside, then handcuffed and duct-taped them.”

A source told the media outlet, “Authorities believe Billingsley raped the woman and cut her neck. He doused her and the …

Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/killing-baltimore-tech-ceo-yet-another-failure-soft-crime-policies-pushed-democrats

California School District Considers Removing Honors Courses For Sake Of “Equity”

Authored by Micaela Ricaforte via The Epoch Times,

A San Francisco Bay Area high school district is considering removing honors classes for high school students in an effort to streamline its courses and promote “equity” – a move that has sparked concern among students, parents, and teachers.

The Sequoia Union High School District’s board discussed the move during a six-hour meeting Sept. 20, but did not come to a decision on the matter.

District administration staff annually review courses based on students’ academic outcomes, and “typically in response to low scores … that have not improved over time,” according to a district analysis.

Arguing for equity, the analysis stated that eliminat …

Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/california-school-district-considers-removing-honors-courses-sake-equity

Average five-year mortgage drops below 6%

The typical rate for a five-year mortgage has fallen to 5.99% after interest rates were held.

Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66946632?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

Households could be paid to turn down heating

It comes after people were paid to use less electricity last year to prevent supply issues.

Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66936976?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

Rishi Sunak repeatedly dodges questions over future of HS2 rail

Speculation is mounting the government could delay or scrap the second leg of the line to Manchester.

Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66946836?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

FII dollars take slow lane on Dalal Street in Q2; what does Q3 have in store?

FPI purchases saw a sharp slowdown in the September quarter, as they net invested just Rs 21,900 crore or $2.6 billion in the secondary market, after pumping in Rs 1.02 lakh crore ($12 billion) in the preceding quarter, data by StockEdge showed.

Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/fii-dollars-take-slow-lane-on-dalal-street-in-q2-what-does-q3-have-in-store/articleshow/104007094.cms

2 Adani group stocks among counters with highest debt levels

The debt-to-equity ratio signifies how much debt a company has as compared to its assets. Adani Green has the highest debt-to-equity ratio. Take a look at the others. (Source: Trendlyne)

Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/2-adani-group-stocks-among-counters-with-highest-debt-levels/in-focus/slideshow/104023436.cms

Will crude float above $100 per barrel mark in coming weeks? Peter McGuire answers

Well, I do not know how far, much further it can go. Everyone was saying 95 and keep an eye on it. Well, we are at 97.5 now. So, we are knocking on the door of 100.

Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/will-crude-sustain-above-100-per-barrel-mark-in-coming-weeks-peter-mcguire-answers/articleshow/104010250.cms

Living With Climate Change: Here’s the surprising state getting a boost from Amazon.com’s renewable-energy projects

Ohio, the political battleground state that voted red in the 2020 presidential election, mulls a green-energy future with a boost from Amazon.

Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7270-63D83A9F1F23%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1

The Moneyist: ‘It feels like a nightmare’: My siblings hid our father’s will, which would have left me $135,000. What can I do?

“I thought I could trust my own family, but now I realize I can trust no one.”

Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-726E-2E71807E28FC%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1

Deep Dive: Amazon’s and Google’s stocks could be a ‘win-win’ even if both companies face government-ordered breakups

Both companies are expected to keep growing quickly, and if either Amazon or Alphabet is broken up, investors might be sitting pretty.

Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-726E-E5ADB4BAF135%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1

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