Updated at 5:40 p.m. EDT to be up to date for September 27. The regular September 27 Article will be published at 8 p.m. EDT today but it will be the same as this update. Remember the images update automatically. I just add the NWS statement which is generally valid for 48 to 72 hours.
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023
Valid 00Z Thu Sep 28 2023 – 00Z Sat Sep 30 2023…A cool and wet weather pattern to persist across the Pacific
Northwest……No changes to the wet pattern across Florida…
…Showery pattern to continue through the Ohio Valley and Lower Lakes and
develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Southern New England……Warm dry conditions expected across much of the central portion of the
nation…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The recent wet weather along the Northwest coast will continue into middle
to later portions of the week as the recent series of northeast Pacific
frontal boundaries continue to push inland. Scattered showers in the wake
of the strong front moving inland into the Northwest Wednesday/Wednesday
night will be followed by another area of low pressure, associated frontal
boundaries and additional precipitation, moving toward the Northwest coast
on Thursday. While precipiation has been above average over the past
week in this wet pattern, longer term drought conditions still plague the
Northwest with large portions of Oregon and Washington State in severe to
exceptional drought. The wet weather across the Northwest is also
supporting continued below average temperatures from northern California,
through the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies. Across these
areas, high temperatures are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees below average
over the next several days.A wet weather pattern also expected to continue across much of Florida for
the next few days. A stationary frontal boundary is forecast to remain
across the northern portion of the peninsula while a mid to upper level
trof over the Gulf of Mexico helps to stream above average moisture values
across the state. Additional heavy rains are possible across much of
Florida Thursday and Friday, with isolated flash flooding possible,
especially in urbanized regions.A slow moving mid to upper level low across the Mid-West will continue its
slow slog eastward through the Lower Lakes into the end of this week. The
showery pattern in association with this system will continue to produce
area of moderate to heavy rainfall from the Ohio Valley, northward into
portions of the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated flash flooding is possible
with these rains, with the greatest threat across portions of west central
Kentucky where the heaviest rainfall is forecast. As this mid to upper
level low pushes eastward, it will begin to draw moisture northwestward
off the western Atlantic and into areas from the coastal Mid-Atlantic to
southern New England Thursday night into Friday, with increasing rain
chances across these areas.While several area of the nation will be wet over the next few days, dry
and warm weather will occur across large portions of the nation from the
Southwest, through much of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and
western to central Gulf Coast. Across these areas, summer like
temperatures are expected, with day time highs between 10 and 20 degrees
above average.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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