Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 43 points or 0.13%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.45%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.40%,
- Gold $1935 down $11.00,
- WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.10,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.540% down 0.10 points,
- USD index $105.94 up $0.36,
- Bitcoin $26,531 up $101
Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average edged down to –0.14 in August 2023 from –0.15 in July. Thirty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 50 made negative contributions. I consider the CFNAI the best coincident economic indicator, and the 3 month moving average is used for economic forecasting as it removes the volatility of the monthly data. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70. Still, since the value is below zero, it means the economy is expanding below the historical trend rate of growth.
Growth in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey resumed in September 2023 with the production index rebounding nearly 20 points to 7.9—its highest reading of the year. The new orders sub-index pushed up 11 points to -5.2, a reading still indicative of falling demand though not at the pace seen in the past several months. The regional Fed surveys are volatile, and I have seen no indication yet that manufacturing is out of a recession.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Armenia’s Western Pivot Sparks Unease In Moscow
- Chevron Getting Ready For New Oil Drilling In Venezuela
- Unprecedented Gold Hoarding By Central Banks Heralds Financial Sea Change
- The Spread Between Brent And WTI Has Aligned With Transatlantic Freight Costs
- ChatGPT can now ‘speak,’ listen and process images, OpenAI says
- Merck Covid drug linked to virus mutations that can spread between people, new study says
- Writers reach tentative deal with studios to end strike after nearly 150 days
- Bonds & Bullion Dumped, Dollar Jumps As Shutdown & Student-Loan Cliff Loo
- Government shutdown could leave thousands of federally backed mortgages in ‘limbo’
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
Fracking Fallout: Is America’s Drinking Water Safe?Eleven years ago, I wrote about the how millions of holes drilled deep into American soil were already destined to pollute groundwater across the United States, making many areas uninhabitable to humans who rely on such water. I warned that the so-called shale oil and gas boom would make this problem dramatically worse. Now that problem has reached the news pages of southern Ohio, and this will likely just be the beginning of coverage of fracking-related damage to the country’s groundwater supplies. (There has been much coverage of studies that… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Fracking-Fallout-Is-Americas-Drinking-Water-Safe.html |
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Armenia’s Western Pivot Sparks Unease In MoscowThese days Armenia’s relationship with Russia is looking more like a hostage situation than a strategic partnership. On September 19, as Azerbaijan was waging its massive assault on Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia’s first reaction was to call on both sides to stop fighting and suggest that Armenia had brought about the situation itself. A short time later, former Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev chided the Armenian prime minister for blaming Moscow for Yerevan’s problems, “flirting with NATO,” and engaging in a modest outreach to Ukraine. “One can… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Armenias-Western-Pivot-Sparks-Unease-In-Moscow.html |
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Unprecedented Gold Hoarding By Central Banks Heralds Financial Sea ChangeMy estimation of global official gold reserves hit 38,764 tonnes in Q2 2023, breaking its previous record from 1965. The new high confirms the world has entered a new era of gold. Central banks will continue to accumulate gold and the metal’s role in the international monetary system will increase to the detriment of the US dollar. Analysts widely use the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculation for total official gold holdings, though what is usually overlooked is that this number is an estimate by the Fund. As mentioned in my previous… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Gold/Unprecedented-Gold-Hoarding-By-Central-Banks-Heralds-Financial-Sea-Change.html |
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Chevron Getting Ready For New Oil Drilling In VenezuelaAs Chevron scrambles to recoup some $3 billion in losses over its Venezuela oil projects, the U.S. oil giant is now gearing up to launch a new drilling campaign that could add 65,000 barrels per day within a year, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. Chevron has joint ventures with Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA, but further drilling operations have been on hold since sanctions were expanded in 2019 following questions about the legitimacy of 2018 elections in which Nicolas Maduro assumed the presidency. The Chevron-PDVSA joint… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chevron-Getting-Ready-For-New-Oil-Drilling-In-Venezuela.html |
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Are Consumers Willing To Pay A Premium For Low-Carbon Aluminum?Via Metal Miner LME aluminum prices edged sideways throughout August, with a modest 1.69% month-over-month rise. Meanwhile, prices show little bullish or bearish momentum as they continue to trade within a tight range. Overall, the Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) continued to move sideways as well, rising a modest 0.79% from August to September. Hydro Bets Big on Lower Carbon Aluminum – Will the Market Reward the Company’s Strategy? Hydro Extrusions North America recently placed a large bet on lower-carbon aluminum. Indeed,… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Are-Consumers-Willing-To-Pay-A-Premium-For-Low-Carbon-Aluminum.html |
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Tajikistan Promises Green Hydrogen ProductionTajikistan—a nation heavily dependent on crude oil imports—is looking to develop its green hydrogen industry, with a goal of producing 1 million tons of hydrogen by 2040, the country’s Minister of Energy and Water Resources Daler Juma told Reuters on Monday. Tajikistan plans to have 10 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Tajikistan currently generates almost all of its electricity with hydropower and imports almost all of its crude oil from Russia. Its interim goal is to have 500,000 tons of green hydrogen capacity by 2030,… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tajikistan-Promises-Green-Hydrogen-Production.html |
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Energy Fund Manager Predicts Major Upside For Oil EquitiesNinepoint Energy Fund’s Eric Nuttall sees a strong year ahead for oil stocks, which have been lagging behind the surge in oil prices, citing unprecedented draws in oil inventories. Nuttall, who manages Canada’s largest energy mutual fund, says “the macro backdrop for oil has never been as positive” in his career, and while oil stocks are not soaring along with crude prices that have recently been flirting with $95 per barrel, this is the time to invest. “What we see now are [oil] inventories falling at the… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Energy-Fund-Manager-Predicts-Major-Upside-For-Oil-Equities.html |
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Egypt Seeks Exploration Bids For 23 Oil And Gas BlocksEgypt launched on Monday an international bidding round for oil and gas exploration in 23 onshore and offshore blocks, the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources said. Egypt will be offering in this bidding round 10 blocks in the Western Desert region, two blocks in the Eastern Desert, seven areas in the Gulf of Suez, and four blocks in the Red Sea, according to an announcement by the ministry carried by Reuters. The deadline for the filing of the bids is February 25, 2024. Egypt, which has seen some large gas discoveries in recent… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Egypt-Seeks-Exploration-Bids-For-23-Oil-And-Gas-Blocks.html |
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Short Sellers Scramble As Energy Stocks SurgeOver the past month we had repeatedly pointed out that at a time when oil and other energy commodities were soaring – and Brent last week surpassed the average price at which Biden drained the SPR so at least the US now has (almost) triple digit oil again but 200 million fewer emergency barrels of oil – energy stocks were rising but at a much slower pace (something which even JPMorgan highlighted on Friday in their wholesale upgrade of the energy sector). dramatic disconnect between oil and energy stocks pic.twitter.com/VelHdd21K9… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Short-Sellers-Scramble-As-Energy-Stocks-Surge.html |
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Lego Abandons Plans To Make Bricks From Recycled Plastic BottlesDanish toy maker Lego is abandoning the idea of making its famous bricks out of recycled plastic instead of from oil-based products, after finding that the recycled material would have more lifetime carbon emissions due to new equipment, Lego’s chief executive Niels Christiansen has told the Financial Times. Two years ago, Lego announced a breakthrough that would allow it to produce its legendary bricks from recycled plastic bottles instead of from oil-based plastic. Back then, the toy maker was “super excited” about making bricks… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Lego-Abandons-Plans-To-Make-Bricks-From-Recycled-Plastic-Bottles.html |
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Global Appetite For Canadian Crude Grows Amidst Supply CutsLast week, Canada’s Prime Minister pledged to the UN General Assembly that he would cap emissions from the country’s oil and gas industry this year. Interestingly, the only leaders allowed to speak at the gathering were those who had made firm climate change commitments, and even though Trudeau was among them, he was criticized for the fact that “Canada was one of the largest expanders of fossil fuels last year,” per a CBC report. To the UN general assembly’s horror, Canada continues to be “an expander” this year as well. Over this year and next,… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Appetite-For-Canadian-Crude-Grows-Amidst-Supply-Cuts.html |
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The Spread Between Brent And WTI Has Aligned With Transatlantic Freight CostsThe cost of transporting U.S. crude from the Gulf Coast to Europe has been increasingly determining the discount at which the U.S. benchmark WTI trades relative to the North Sea crude benchmark Brent, according to estimates by Argus. So far in September, the cost of shipping a U.S. crude cargo from the Gulf Coast to Europe has been nearly the same as the Brent-WTI spread. This month, a cargo of 700,000 barrels of WTI crude has cost $2.33 per barrel on average to transport from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe. This has been only a penny away from… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Spread-Between-Brent-And-WTI-Has-Aligned-With-Transatlantic-Freight-Costs.html |
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Russia Lifts Ban On Low-Quality Diesel ExportsOn Monday, Russia tweaked its export limitations on fuels, lifting the temporary ban on exports of low-quality diesel and marine fuel. At the end of last week, Russia surprised the markets by announcing a temporary ban on exports of gasoline and diesel to stabilize fuel prices on the domestic market, ending weeks of speculation that authorities would limit exports in the face of soaring prices and shortages due to higher crude prices and weak Russian ruble. Fuel already accepted for export by Transneft and the Russian Railways before last week’s… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Lifts-Ban-On-Low-Quality-Diesel-Exports.html |
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U.S. Energy Storage Additions Hit A Record-High In Q2U.S. developers added 5,597 megawatt hours (MWh) of energy storage installations in the second quarter of 2023, setting a new quarterly record and putting the American energy storage market on track for a record year in 2023, a new report by Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP) showed on Monday. In the second quarter, grid-scale energy storage additions led the way with a record-breaking 5,109 MWh, which beat the previous record in the grid-scale segment from Q4 2021 by 5%, according to WoodMac and ACP. Compared to the… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Energy-Storage-Additions-Hit-A-Record-High-In-Q2.html |
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Harold Hamm Calls For Consistency In U.S. Oil And Gas RegulationShale pioneer Harold Hamm, the founder of Continental Resources, has called for the uncertainty in U.S. oil and gas regulations to end so that the industry can have clearer advance plans on drilling and production operations. The current U.S. Administration’s policies regarding oil and gas are “like riding a roller coaster,” Hamm told oil industry executives and politicians in Oklahoma City, as carried by Bloomberg. “It’s so important that we have an energy policy that’s lasting and somebody can’t tinker… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Harold-Hamm-Calls-For-Consistency-In-US-Oil-And-Gas-Regulation.html |
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ChatGPT can now ‘speak,’ listen and process images, OpenAI saysOpenAI’s ChatGPT can now “see, hear and speak,” or, at least, understand spoken words, respond with a synthetic voice and process images, the company said. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/chatgpt-speak-listen-process-images-openai.html |
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S&P 500, Nasdaq close higher Monday, snapping four-day losing streaks: Live updatesStocks have struggled this month as the Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates for longer, sending bond yields rising. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/24/stock-market-today-live-updates.html |
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Fetterman plans to return donation tied to Menendez ‘in envelopes stuffed with $100 bills,’ spokesman saysSen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey was indicted with his wife last week on federal bribery charges. Fellow Democrat John Fetterman has called on him to resign. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/fetterman-to-return-sen-bob-menendez-donation-with-cash.html |
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Merck Covid drug linked to virus mutations that can spread between people, new study saysThere is still no evidence that molnupiravir, sold under the brand name Lagevrio, has produced more transmissible or severe variants of Covid. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/merck-covid-drug-linked-to-virus-mutations-study-says-.html |
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Bernstein says investors should take profits in pricey tech stocks such as Nvidia and these othersMegacap technology stocks have led most of the 2023 market rally, and it might be time to take some chips off the table, according to Toni Sacconaghi. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/bernstein-says-investors-should-take-profits-in-pricey-tech-stocks-such-as-nvidia-and-these-others.html |
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Biden’s visit to UAW picket line not influenced by Trump’s, White House saysTrump announced last week he would skip the second GOP debate in California and meet with striking UAW members instead. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/bidens-visit-to-uaw-picket-line-not-influenced-by-trumps-white-house-says.html |
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Pfizer restarts production at tornado-hit North Carolina plant, but drug supply will still be affectedPfizer expects operations to fully resume by the end of the year, but it warned that supply of some medicines would be affected until at least mid-2024. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/pfizer-restarts-production-at-tornado-damaged-plant-in-north-carolina.html |
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Writers reach tentative deal with studios to end strike after nearly 150 daysTalks between the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers resumed last week after months of starts and stops. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/wga-amptp-hollywood-writers-deal.html |
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Sierra Space raising nearly $300 million from Japanese consortium at $5 billion valuationThe fresh funds come as Sierra Space focuses on getting its Dream Chaser spaceplane flying. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/sierra-space-fundraising-nearly-300-million-at-5-billion-valuation.html |
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MicroStrategy buys $147.3 million in bitcoin, bringing total held to $4.68 billion: CNBC Crypto WorldCNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what’s ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today’s show, Brett Harrison, former FTX U.S. president and CEO of Architect, explains the new company’s focus on investment tools for digital assets and traditional markets. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/09/25/microstrategy-buys-147point3-million-bitcoin-total-held-4point68-billion-crypto-world.html |
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The first tour inside Manhattan’s newest private club, with $100,000 membership feesThe new Core Club, spread over four floors above Midtown, is the latest in a wave of elite membership clubs that have opened in major cities since the pandemic. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/inside-core-club-tour-inside-manhattans-newest-members-only-club.html |
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Offices remain half full after latest round of RTO mandates: Taking away hybrid could be a ‘betrayal’In September 2023, office badge swipes in the 10 biggest U.S. cities are at about 50% what they were prior to the pandemic. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/after-latest-round-of-rto-mandates-offices-remain-only-half-full.html |
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Pressure mounts on McCarthy ahead of shutdown deadline as Democratic Rep. Boyle blames ‘infighting’House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is at the center of the Republican party’s refusal to move forward on a spending bill without cuts to domestic programs. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/shutdown-deadline-pressure-is-on-mccarthy-dem-blames-infighting.html |
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“Events Are Moving Quickly Now” – Kunstler Warns Of Imminent “Banquet Of Consequences” For Biden AdminAuthored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com, Slouching Towards Beelzebub
So, here’s what you might have learned over the weekend if you ventured into the thickets of alt news: in April and May of 2021, the president (“Joe Biden”), the whole White House Covid Response Team (Andy Slavitt & Co), and everyone in the WH communications office, the US Surgeon General (Vivek Murthy), senior officials of the CDC including director Rochelle Walensky, Francis Collins, head of NIH, and Dr. Anthony Fauci of NIAID were all freaking out, holding crisis meetings, and sending blizzards of emails among each other after being informed by a Pfizer safety report that the miraculous new mRNA Covid vaccines produced significant cases of myocarditis and blood-clotting abnormalities. All these officials proceeded to craft a campaign to tell the public that this myocarditis was mild, extremely rare, and self-resolving (it wasn’t), and urged all Americans over twelve to keep taking the vaxx shots. Later, they expanded the vaccine program to include children down to six months old. By 2022, all of US public health officialdom had to know that the vaxxes were also ineffective at preventing infection and transmission of Covid. Rochelle Walensky kept pushing the v … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/events-are-moving-quickly-now-kunstler-warns-imminent-banquet-consequences-biden-admin |
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Bonds & Bullion Dumped, Dollar Jumps As Shutdown & Student-Loan Cliff LoomAs the final week of September (and Q3) begins, two large tail risks loom over the market (and economy): government shutdown and student-loan-payment resumption. Both could trigger notable declines in GDP: Goldman estimates that a government-wide shutdown would reduce quarterly annualized growth by around 0.2pp for each week it lasts after accounting for modest private sector effects; and expect the resumption of student loan payments to subtract 0.5pp from quarterly annualized GDP growth. And just to pile on, as growth could slow, inflation threats are re-asserting themselves (via commodities) and hurting sentiment optically and actually via soaring gasoline prices. That stagflationary impulse is clearly evident in forecasts for next year… Source: Bloomberg Safe-haven cash demand ahead of the potential shutdown helped send the dollar higher – breaking out to its highest since Dec 2022. Today was the bigges … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-dumped-dollar-jumps-shutdown-student-loan-cliff-loom |
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Jefferies Downgrades Nike, Footlocker, Urban Outfitters As Student Debt Payment Restart Set To Spark Spending PullbackAnalysts at Jefferies have downgraded athletic apparel giant Nike, in addition to footwear and clothing retailers Footlocker and Urban Outfitters, on mounting headwinds from a massive slowdown in China to a deteriorating US consumer amid restarting student loan repayments. This follows a must-read note from JPM’s Market Desk that warned last week: “Sentiment Is Turning Very Negative On The US Consumer” (available to pro subs). Beginning with Nike, analyst Randal Konik told clients Monday that a slowdown in China, coupled with the bank’s latest US consumer survey, presents a worrisome outlook for demand from one of the world’s largest athletic apparel companies. “We see incremental risk ahead for NKE as the wholesale channel is likely to remain pressured and growth in China faces macro headwinds. Meanwhile, our consumer survey results indicate that US consumers are likely to reduce spending ahead, with apparel and footwear being the most likely areas of pullback,” Konik said. Here’s more from the report:
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The Subtle Art Of Orange-PillingAuthored by Jesse Colzani via BictoinMagazine.com, Every Bitcoin user has very different reasons for using Bitcoin in the first place. That is something that everyone should consider when trying to orange pill new users… Throughout the years, I have presented the case for Bitcoin to a lot of people from a wide range of backgrounds. The list includes curious cab drivers, financial advisors, young software developers, skeptical policymakers, voiceless activists, and once even an IMF employee. Needless to say, most of these attempts ended up falling on deaf ears. So I started asking myself “why would this person in front of me care about Bitcoin?” and immediately realized that getting a response was particularly challenging because—even among Bitcoiners—there is no common understanding of what Bitcoin is in the first place. Is it “peer-to-peer electronic cash” as Satoshi originally defined it? Or should we cons … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/subtle-art-orange-pilling |
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Gatwick cancels 82 flights due to staff shortagesThe airport will cancel some flights over the coming week after sickness hits air traffic controllers. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66917138?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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HS2: Backlash against scrapping Manchester rail link growsAxeing the high speed rail leg would hit links between Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds, critics say. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66909732?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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HS2: What is the route and why could part of it be cancelled?The high-speed railway between London, the Midlands and North of England could be scaled back. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16473296?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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HDFC Securities launches discount broking app HDFC SKY with flat pricingHDFC SKY, has introduced a one-price slab of Rs 20 for both intraday and delivery across segments, MTF at 12%, coupled with zero account opening and maintenance charges for the first year Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/hdfc-securities-launches-discount-broking-app-hdfc-sky-with-flat-pricing/articleshow/103939732.cms |
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These 7 stocks touched their 52-week highs; Which one do you own?During Monday’s trading session, the Sensex benchmark index saw a modest increase of about 15 points, finishing the day at 66,023. Even though the markets remained generally stable, seven stocks listed in the BSE 200 index were able to reach their highest prices in the past 52 weeks. The 52-week high is particularly important for certain traders and investors since it serves as a crucial technical indicator for assessing a stock’s present worth and predicting potential fluctuations in its price. This figure signifies the peak price at which a stock was exchanged over the preceding year. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/7-stocks-touched-their-52-week-high-do-you-own-any/new-highs/slideshow/103936384.cms |
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Yen falls to fresh 11-month low against dollar, focus on intervention risksThe yen fell 0.17% to 148.66 per dollar, touching its lowest since late October and adding to Friday’s declines after the BOJ maintained ultra-low interest rates, while Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need to spend more time assessing data before raising interest rates. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/yen-falls-to-fresh-11-month-low-against-dollar-focus-on-intervention-risks/articleshow/103937329.cms |
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Government shutdown could leave thousands of federally backed mortgages in ‘limbo’Aspiring homeowners who are applying for government-backed mortgages may face unexpected delays in the event of a government shutdown. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-726B-B4CB02506BF5%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Key Words: Sam Altman thinks we should feel good, but not great, about him as our AI leaderThe face and conscience of generative AI, OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman, understands that people are terrified of AI, and he thinks we should be scared. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-726C-D504B60CBE5A%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield sees highest close since 2007Long-end Treasury yields establish fresh multiyear highs as traders continue to absorb the higher-for-longer theme for interest rates in the U.S. and abroad. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-726C-390D91D4BBD0%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |