Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Valid 00Z Mon Sep 25 2023 – 00Z Wed Sep 27 2023…There are two areas of Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the northern Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England and second over the
Southern Plain and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains……There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Southern Plains…
…Air Quality Alerts over parts of Central California…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Former Tropical Storm OPHELIA has become a non-tropical low over the
northern Mid-Atlantic that will slowly move eastward out over the Western
Atlantic by Monday. The low will continue to pull moist air off the
Atlantic, producing areas of heavy rain over parts of eastern
Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey, extreme southeastern New York State/Long
Island, and Connecticut. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New
England. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Middle Mississippi Valley and then into the Southern
Plains will slowly dissipate by Monday evening. The system will produce
showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest into the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday evening. The
system will also create showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of
eastern Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and a small section of the
Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.In addition, the front will also create an area of heavy rain over
southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, northwestern Louisiana, and
northeastern Texas. Therefore, through Monday morning, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Furthermore, an upper-level low over the Upper Midwest will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of
southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Monday. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.On Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
decreases slightly to a Marginal Risk over the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley. On Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will continue
over parts of the Central Gulf Coast and the Southeast.Moreover, weak upper-level ridging over Texas and high temperatures in the
upper 90s near 100 and dew points in the mid-70s have prompted Heat
Advisories over eastern Texas. Next, smoke from wildfires in California
will reduce air quality over parts of Central California, prompting Air
Quality Warnings over the area.Lastly, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday night
will move inland to the Northern High Plains by Tuesday. The system will
have a plume of moisture associated with it, creating rain over parts of
the Pacific Northwest and Northern California from Sunday night into
Monday. Behind the front, a component of onshore flow will aid in
continuing the rain over the area through Tuesday evening.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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