Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 19 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 19 2023 – 12Z Thu Sep 21 2023…Heavy rain and severe storm chances for parts of the Southern Plains on
Tuesday……Above average heat forecast for the Central U.S. through mid-week…
…Shower and storm chances as well as some chilly Fall temperatures begin
to spread across the West mid-week…
| Notices: We recently published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
An active Tuesday is expected for the Southern Plains with the threat for
both severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall/scattered flash flooding. An
upper-level shortwave originating over the lee of the Rockies will
favorably interact with a warm front and very moist Gulf return flow,
leading to robust thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. The Storm
Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk of Severe Weather (level 2/5)
for northwest Texas and Oklahoma where some gusty, damaging winds and
large hail will be possible. In addition, very heavy downpours as well as
the expectation storms will begin to congeal/grow upscale into the evening
will also lead to the risk for some scattered instances of flash flooding,
with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect. Storm
intensity and coverage will likely be lower on Wednesday as the
upper-level wave departs to the east, but some isolated severe weather and
locally heavy rain will remain possible. Late Summer heat is forecast to
persist more broadly across the central U.S. through mid-week as high
temperatures reach 10-20 degrees above average. Highs in the mid-80s to
low 90s are forecast for the Central/Northern Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley with upper 80s to mid-90s for the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley. Cooler temperatures are forecast for portions of
the Northern Plains Wednesday as a cold front passes through and brings
increased shower and thunderstorm chances.Meanwhile, some rain will be possible for the Pacific Northwest Tuesday as
a storm system approaches from the Pacific. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will begin to increase more broadly across the northern tier of
the West Wednesday as a deep upper-level low drops south from Canada and a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary lingers in the region. Pooling moisture
along the boundary and enhanced lift with the approach of the upper-low
may lead to some heavy downpours and the risk for isolated flash flooding,
particularly for portions of the Northern Great Basin/Rockies. The
upper-low will also bring some much cooler, chilly Fall-like temperatures,
with mostly 60s forecast for the Pacific Northwest/Northern Great
Basin/Northern Rockies. Some locations will struggle to even reach 60.
Highs will remain more seasonable to the south ahead of the
front/upper-low with 60s and 70s for coastal California, 80s for the
central California Valleys east into the Great Basin, and 90s for the
Desert Southwest. Much cooler temperatures will spread into the area by
Thursday just beyond the current forecast period.Elsewhere, showers will linger for northern parts of New England through
the day Tuesday as a low pressure system departs to the northeast. A
sweeping cold front that passed through eastern portions of the country
the last couple days will leave mostly dry and seasonable conditions for
late Summer/early Fall. Forecast highs Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s
from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley east into New England and the
Mid-Atlantic with low to mid-80s for the Southeast. Temperatures will warm
up a bit on Wednesday with more upper 70s and some low 80s expected for
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Daily rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will continue for Central and South Florida where the
aforementioned frontal boundary will remain draped across the Peninsula.
Some locally heavy downpours are expected and isolated flash flooding may
be possible, mainly in urban areas and areas with poor drainage.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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