Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 18 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 18 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 20 2023…Heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding possible for New England
Monday……Heavy rain and severe storm chances return to parts of the Southern
Plains on Tuesday……Hot late Summer temperatures for the heartland to start the week…
| Notices: We recently published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Shower and storm chances should diminish for much of the East Coast this
morning as a pair of frontal systems push off into the Atlantic. However,
an organizing low pressure system just off the coast will track northward
towards New England, helping to funnel warm, very moist air into the
region. Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast to push
northward through much of New England through the day Monday, with the
most consistent, heaviest rainfall expected closer to the Atlantic Coast.
A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) has been introduced for
portions of coastal and Downeast Maine where wetter antecedent conditions,
including rainfall associated with Lee this past weekend, will lead to a
locally higher chance for some scattered instances of flash flooding. Rain
chances should clear from south to north through early Tuesday morning.
Additionally, wet weather is expected across much of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula as the slow-moving cold front lingers over the
region, sparking widespread daily thunderstorm chances early this week.
Forecast highs are generally below average broadly across the East
following the frontal passages, with 60s and 70s from the Midwest to the
Northeast, upper 70s to mid-80s for the Southeast, and upper 80s to low
90s for Florida.A subtle upper-level wave is forecast to eject eastward from the Rockies
over the Southern Plains Tuesday, passing over very moist southerly return
flow from the Gulf of Mexico and interacting with a lingering frontal
boundary, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm chances by Tuesday
afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms from northwest Texas into Oklahoma as some of
the more robust initial storms may produce some large hail and damaging
wind gusts. In addition, the potential for very heavy downpours as well as
for storms to congeal into more widespread clusters into the evening hours
may lead to some flash flood risk, and a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
has been introduced.An upper-level ridge shifting eastward over the Plains will continue to
lead to unseasonably hot late Summer high temperatures for much of the
heartland to start the week. Forecast highs are in the 80s to low 90s
broadly across the Central and Northern Plains with low to mid-90s
expected for the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. These highs
will be running 10-20 degrees above average, particularly over the
Northern Plains. An upper-level wave/cold front pushing eastward from the
Pacific Northwest will begin to bring some cooler, more seasonable
temperatures to northern portions of the High Plains on Tuesday, with 70s
forecast. Conditions will be mostly dry broadly across the western and
central U.S. outside of the aforementioned storm chances over the Southern
Plains. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds
have promoted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) from the Storm
Prediction Center for portions of the Northern High Plains Monday. Highs
in the 60s and 70s will be a bit below average for the Pacific Northwest
and coastal California. Seasonable highs in the 80s are forecast for
central California into the Great Basin with 90s expected for the Desert
Southwest.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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