Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023
Valid 00Z Mon Sep 18 2023 – 00Z Wed Sep 20 2023…Shower and storm chances along the East Coast confine to New England on
Monday……Unsettled weather and severe storm chances return to parts of the
Southern Plains on Tuesday……Much above average high temperatures spread from the Northern Rockies
to the Northern Plains early this week…
| Notices: We recently published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A pair of frontal systems and area of low pressure expected to develop off
the Mid-Atlantic coastline are forecast to spread wet weather up and down
the East Coast through tonight. A few storms could produce damaging wind
gusts, an isolated tornado, and localized flash flooding across coastal
sections of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Farther north,
mostly light to moderate rainfall is expected to spread into the Northeast
tonight and eventually New England on Monday as the aforementioned low
pressure system deepens and pushes northward. Much of New England has
experienced periods of heavy rainfall recently, which leads to many areas
being more susceptible to instances of flooding. A Marginal Risk (level
1/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for Monday from eastern
Connecticut to Maine due to the threat of a few inches of rain within a
relatively short period of time. Residents and visitors are reminded to
remain weather aware and avoid driving through flooded roadways.
Thankfully, this system is expected to be rather progressive and exit the
region by early Tuesday. Additionally, wet weather is expected across much
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula as a slow-moving cold front
lingers over the region, sparking widespread daily thunderstorm chances
into early this week.The other part of the country with notable shower and thunderstorm chances
over the next few days is anticipated to be located across the Southern
Plains on Tuesday. Upper-level energy ejecting off the Central Rockies
interacting with a lingering frontal boundary and increasing atmospheric
moisture will allow for developing thunderstorms by Tuesday evening. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms across northwest Texas as well as central and western
Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to be the
primary hazards, along with locally heavy rain.While cooler autumn temperatures are forecast throughout much of the East
through Tuesday, above average temperatures are expected to spread into
the Northern Plains. Highs to start the workweek into the 80s and low 90s
will be found across much of the Great Plains, which is up to 20 degrees
above average across the Northern Plains when compared to climatology.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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