Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 05 2023Valid 12Z Tue Sep 05 2023 – 12Z Thu Sep 07 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday……There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday...…Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Northern High Plains on Tuesday…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A front over the Upper Midwest will move eastward to the Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley, and Lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday. On Tuesday, the system
will create showers and thunderstorms from the Upper Mississippi Valley
roughly southwestward to the Southern Plains. The front will also produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern Minnesota,
northwestern Wisconsin, and extreme northwest Michigan. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Wednesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.On Wednesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms reduces slightly. As the
front moves eastward, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will
develop over parts of Michigan, most of Indiana, western
Ohio/Kentucky/Tennessee, northeastern Arkansas, and northern Mississippi.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi
Valleys from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Moreover, upper-level energy and a developing front over the Northern
Rockies will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies overnight Wednesday.Meanwhile, upper-level ridging extending from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast will promote hot temperatures over the region, prompting Heat
Advisories over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. In addition,
the hot temperatures will continue over parts of the Upper Midwest on
Tuesday. The hot temperatures will continue over portions of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday into Thursday.Lastly, smoke from wildfires in West-Central Canada will reduce air
quality over parts of the northern High Plains, prompting Air Quality
Warnings over the area.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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