Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023Valid 12Z Thu Aug 31 2023 – 12Z Sat Sep 02 2023
…Tropical Storm Idalia will continue to impact the Carolina Coast
today……Heat wave to expand in coverage across the Northern/Central Plains and
Upper Midwest through Labor Day weekend……Flash Flooding concerns for the Southwest and Florida’s northern Gulf
Coast through Saturday…
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| Notices: Recently we published the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Tropical Storm Idalia will continue to weaken as it moves off into the
Western Atlantic today. Areas of flash, urban and moderate river flooding,
with considerable impacts, are expected from eastern South Carolina
through eastern North Carolina today. Heavy rainfall is expected across
the North Carolina coast through this afternoon, when conditions will
begin to improve. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across coastal North Carolina are
expected during this period. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading
to Flash Flooding is in effect for much of the Outer Banks with an
embedded Moderate Risk in there for portions of the central OBX. Coastal
flooding is also expected within the Storm Surge Watch area in North
Carolina today. Tropical-storm-force winds will affect portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast through Thursday.An amplifying trough along the West Coast will usher in a cooler air mass
over much of the West this weekend. Conversely, this will support the
growth of a ridge across the Central U.S.. This will lead to a heat wave
over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest this Labor Day
weekend. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be in the 90s to low 100s
for many through Monday with little relief expected overnight. Widespread
high and warm low temperature records are likely to be tied or broken,
with some places approaching their all-time hottest September records.
This heat wave will pose a health risk to those without adequate
cooling/hydration. Take this heat seriously, especially if you plan to
spend time outside during the holiday weekend or participate in early
school year outdoor activities. Below average high temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s paird with high pressure overhead will make for a
beatiful introduction to the weekend for much of the East Coast. Heat is
expected to build over the Mid-Atlantic later this weekend, through Labor
Day and into next week, with clear and sunny skies likely.Enhanced southerly flow between the amplifying West Coast trough and
expanding central U.S. ridge will support monsoonal moisture advection
into the Southwest beginning today, when scattered showers and
thunderstorms will produce some isolated pockets of heavy rainfall. The
fire hose opens up on Friday with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding in effect for an axis extending from southern
Arizona up into southeastern Nevada and southern Utah. Up to an 1.5″ of
rain is possible over parts of southeastern Nevada into southwestern Utah
where a number of vulnerable slot canyons are located. Elsewhere, a
stationary closed low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to
generate moist southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico into the Florida
Panhandle on Friday. This will interact with a stationary surface front
and produce heavy to excessive rainfall over the region through Saturday.
A Slight Risk of Flash Flooding is in effect for the Panhandle on Friday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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