Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 168 points or 0.48%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.11%,
- S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
- Gold $1,967 down $6.10,
- WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $1.87,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.100% down 0.018 points,
- USD Index $103.62 up $0.460,
- Bitcoin $26,100 down $1,102,
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 40% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down two points from last month and the lowest level since February 2021. Seasonally adjusted, a net 36% of owners reported raising compensation in August, tying June’s reading, and marking the lowest reading since May 2021. A net 26% of owners plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up five points from July. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:
More small business owners are planning to increase compensation in the next three months as unfilled job openings slipped in August. Even as openings fell on Main Street, owners are actively working to retain current employees and attract qualified applicants.
U.S.-based employers announced 75,151 cuts in August, a 217% increase from the 23,697 cuts announced one month prior. It is 267% higher than the 20,485 cuts announced in the same month in 2022, According to Challenger: “Job openings are falling, and American workers are more reluctant to leave their positions right now. The job market is resetting after the pandemic and post-pandemic hiring frenzy. Job openings are falling, and American workers are more reluctant to leave their positions right now. The job market is resetting after the pandemic and post-pandemic hiring frenzy.”
Real Disposable personal income (DPI) for July 2023 declined to 3.8% increase year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) moved up to 3.0% increase year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The price index which measures inflation for personal consumption expenditures INCREASED to 3.3% growth year-over-year (green line on the graph below. The price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy likewise grew to 4.1% year-over-year. Like I have been predicting, inflation is no longer falling but will be rising in the coming months.
CoreLogic reports that for the month of June, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.3 percentage point decrease compared with 2.9% in June 2022 and unchanged from May 2023.
- Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.3%, up from 1.2% in June 2022
- Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.4%, up from 0.3% in June 2022.
- Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 1%, down from 1.3% in June 2022 and a high of 4.3% in August 2020.
- Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from June 2022.
- Transition Rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.6%, down from 0.7% in June 2022.
In the week ending August 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 237,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 236,750 to 237,250.
The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 48.7 in August of 2023 from 42.8 in July. The reading marked the 12th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region but the smallest in the current sequence that began in September 2022.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Analyst: BRICS Currency Unlikely To Undermine Dollar Dominance
- Fluorinated Aniliniums Lead To A Breakthrough In Perovskite Solar Cells
- Tesla Faces New Competition As European Auto Sales Soar
- Refiners Are Raking It In Amid Surge In Diesel Margins
- U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise Ahead Of Labor Day Weekend
- U.S. health officials want to loosen marijuana restrictions. Here’s what it means
- Shopify stock pops after company strikes ‘Buy with Prime’ deal with Amazon
- Here’s why some economists are concerned student loans may cause the next big bubble
- Philly Fed GDPplus Measure Sure Looks Like Recession Started In Q4 2022
- Ex-CIA Agent Who Signed Propaganda Letter About Hunter Biden Laptop Tried To Conceal Twitter Job
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
The Market in Perspective
| Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
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Analyst: BRICS Currency Unlikely To Undermine Dollar DominanceThe BRICS bloc, a group of developing countries seen as seeking to counter the United States and the West, agreed at a summit last week to admit six new countries — Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The new members will make BRICS a commodities powerhouse, accounting for a substantial portion of global exports of oil, corn, and wheat. BRICS — which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — now accounts for 40 percent of the world’s population, a share that will increase when the others… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Analyst-BRICS-Currency-Unlikely-To-Undermine-Dollar-Dominance.html |
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Fluorinated Aniliniums Lead To A Breakthrough In Perovskite Solar CellsEcole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne researchers have found a way to significantly improve the operational stability of perovskite solar cells at high temperatures, which is necessary for their use in terawatt power grids. Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) have gained attention for their high power-conversion efficiencies and low-cost solution processing. However, ensuring their stability at high temperatures has been a challenge, as the points of contact between their different layers (“interfaces”) are susceptible to… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/Fluorinated-Aniliniums-Lead-To-A-Breakthrough-In-Perovskite-Solar-Cells.html |
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India’s Oil Imports From Russia Fell In AugustIndia’s crude oil imports from sanctioned Russia fell in August to a seven-month low, according to Kpler and Refinitiv data. India’s refiners reduced their crude oil intake from Russia partially due to routine refinery maintenance—but also due to decreased discounts on Russian grades. Meanwhile, India’s crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia rose to a multi-month high, the data shows. India’s August Russian crude oil imports fell by about 20% from July levels to 1.5 million bpd—and down from 2.2 million bpd in June. Saudi Arabia’s crude… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indias-Oil-Imports-From-Russia-Fell-In-August.html |
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Tesla Faces New Competition As European Auto Sales SoarEuropean vehicle sales are going to be on watch heading into the back half of the week after automobile sales in Europe rose for the 12th consecutive month in July, Bloomberg reported this morning. Germany, France and Spain all saw double-digit growth for the month, the report says. In sum, registrations of new cars were up 17% to 1.02 million vehicles, the report says, citing data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. Volkswagen sold the most passenger cars in the region with 280,294 registrations, up 19% from a… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tesla-Faces-New-Competition-As-European-Auto-Sales-Soar.html |
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Oil Price Forecast Gets Boost On OPEC Output Cut ExpectationsA group of 37 economists and analysts have raised their 2023 oil price forecasts for the first time in four months saying OPEC+ output cuts will be enough to offset weak economic growth in China. The commodity experts have predicted Brent crude will average $82.45 a barrel in 2023, higher than the July consensus of $81.95, while WTI crude is seen averaging $77.83 a barrel for the entire year, above the previous $77.20 forecast. The new Brent forecast implies prices will average $86.15 for September through December, slightly lower than the… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Price-Forecast-Gets-Boost-On-OPEC-Output-Cut-Expectations.html |
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German Natural Gas Imports Slump By 18% In January-AugustGermany’s natural gas imports declined by 17.9% between January and August compared to the same period last year, BDEW, the German utility industry association, said on Thursday. Total gas demand in Germany has dropped so far this year amid calls for energy savings and high prices. Germany has turned to importing more gas from Norway and the Netherlands, as well as LNG via newly-launched LNG import terminals, to compensate for the lack of Russian gas which the country hasn’t received for a year now, since the beginning of… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/German-Natural-Gas-Imports-Slump-By-18-In-January-August.html |
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EU Council President Rekindles Georgia’s Hopes For MembershipGeorgians were uplifted by an ambitious enlargement speech by an EU leader a week after another enlargement-related meeting left the country worried about its future in the bloc. On August 28, European Council President Charles Michel delivered a bold address speaking of countries with a “European perspective” – including Georgia – as “future member states,” and laying out a more detailed plan for their integration. The speech came as overwhelmingly pro-EU Georgia was left feeling excluded from a Greek-hosted enlargement-related forum closely… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/EU-Council-President-Rekindles-Georgias-Hopes-For-Membership.html |
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Gazprom Claims It Accounts For Over Half Of Chinese Gas Import GrowthGazprom has accounted for more than half of the rise in China’s natural gas imports so far this year, Alexey Miller, the chief executive officer of the Russian gas giant, said on Thursday. Russia’s state gas giant has relied on more natural gas exports to China as sales to Europe have plummeted since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Natural gas demand in Europe has dropped this year for a second consecutive year, the executive says in a Telegram post by Gazprom cited by Reuters. “At the same time, we see that the Chinese… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Gazprom-Claims-It-Accounts-For-Over-Half-Of-Chinese-Gas-Import-Growth.html |
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Saudi Arabia Reaps The Benefits Of Steepening BackwardationOil prices globally have been firmly above $80 per barrel, however, the market at large has kept surprisingly mum about the key factor in the price rally of July-August, namely Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cuts. Happening at a time of strong demand and low inventories, the output curbs sent backwardation spiraling again so that the Dubai cash-to-futures spread is back to $2 per barrel, all the while providing constant support for refining margins around the world. Were it not for Riyadh, the pressure on refiners would have been… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Reaps-The-Benefits-Of-Steepening-Backwardation.html |
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Natural Gas Storage In Russia At 88% Of Target Ahead Of WinterGazprom has filled 88% of the targeted winter volumes of natural gas in Russia’s underground storage facilities, the Russian gas giant’s CEO Alexey Miller said on Thursday. “We are pumping gas into Russian underground storage facilities right on schedule. This should also be mentioned. Storage is currently 88% of target,” Miller was quoted as saying by Russian news agency Interfax. Miller expressed confidence that Gazprom would meet by the start of the winter season all the targets for injecting gas into Russian storage… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Natural-Gas-Storage-In-Russia-At-88-Of-Target-Ahead-Of-Winter.html |
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Refiners Are Raking It In Amid Surge In Diesel MarginsDiesel prices have been supercharged this summer, but as Bloomberg’s Jack Wittels warns, the moves seem out of kilter with the relatively mundane fundamental drivers, creating the risk of a correction. Then again, it could just be a repeat of last year when diesel prices went suborbital due to lack of refining capacity, and led to a cash bonanza for refiners. Benchmark diesel futures in northwest Europe are currently worth about $35 more than ICE Brent, more than double the seasonal norm. This price difference — known as the diesel… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Refiners-Are-Raking-It-In-Amid-Surge-In-Diesel-Margins.html |
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Glencore Faces Legal Heat From Top Global FundsShares in commodity giant Glencore dropped over four per cent in early trading this morning after it was revealed some of the world’s biggest investment groups and companies are claimants in the trading house’s ongoing legal battle in London. Glencore is being challenged by 197 claimants, including sovereign wealth funds such as GIC, Norges Bank, and Oman Investment Authority, pension funds like Scottish Widows and Ontario Pension Board and strategies managed by companies including Abrdn, Fidelity, HSBC, Invesco and Legal and General.… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Glencore-Faces-Legal-Heat-From-Top-Global-Funds.html |
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Guyana’s Oil Boom Is Changing The Global Energy LandscapeSince the discovery of 11 billion barrels of proven oil reserves offshore in 2015, Guyana’s oil industry has gone from strength to strength. The tiny Caribbean country has attracted billions in international investment in its energy sector, with billions more expected to follow thanks to several successes. And recent legislation passed by Guyana’s parliament is expected to encourage new production and ensure that the small country earns a significant share of its oil revenues in the coming decades. Guyana, with a population of… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Guyanas-Oil-Boom-Is-Changing-The-Global-Energy-Landscape.html |
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U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise Ahead Of Labor Day WeekendThe average retail price of regular gasoline in the United States has risen by 6% over the past five weeks heading into the Labor Day weekend, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday. On the Monday before the Labor Day weekend, August 28, 2023, the retail price of regular gasoline averaged $3.81 per gallon across the U.S. Prices have increased by 6%, or by $0.22 per gallon, over the past five weeks, due to oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia, low U.S. gasoline inventories, and announced refinery maintenance in the U.S.… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Gasoline-Prices-Rise-Ahead-Of-Labor-Day-Weekend.html |
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Iran’s Oil Production And Exports Surged In AugustIran’s oil production and exports likely soared in August to the highest since the U.S. sanctions were imposed in 2018, ship-tracking data and analysts have told Reuters. Iran has been raising its crude and condensate production for months and has increased shipments of its oil, mainly to China, while the U.S. and Iran are said to be negotiating over the possible release of five Iranian Americans being held in Tehran and unfreezing of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. Some analysts have attributed Iran’s higher oil sales… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Irans-Oil-Production-And-Exports-Surged-In-August.html |
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Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and ‘Barbenheimer’ are lifting consumer spending this quarter. But Morgan Stanley says it may not lastMorgan Stanley sees a potential unwinding from these events, as well as the resumption of student loan payments, in the fourth quarter. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/taylor-swift-beyonc-and-barbenheimer-are-helping-consumer-spending.html |
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U.S. health officials want to loosen marijuana restrictions. Here’s what it meansIf marijuana is downgraded to a Schedule III drug, it could be a huge boost to a struggling industry. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/hhs-wants-to-reclassify-marijuana-what-it-means.html |
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Giuliani loses support of billionaires Langone, Cooperman: ‘I wouldn’t give him a nickel’Rudy Giuliani will not be getting help from some of the top donors from his 2008 campaign for president, as they turn their backs on him. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/giuliani-loses-financial-support-of-billionaires-langone-cooperman.html |
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Shopify stock pops after company strikes ‘Buy with Prime’ deal with AmazonThe agreement serves as a detente between the two companies after Shopify initially urged merchants not to use Buy with Prime, citing security risks. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/shopify-stock-pops-after-it-strikes-buy-with-prime-deal-with-amazon.html |
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Devon Energy, CVS and more: CNBC’s ‘Halftime Report’ traders answer your questions‘Ask Halftime’ traders answer your questions about stocks and other investments. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/devon-energy-and-more-cnbcs-halftime-report-answers-your-questions.html |
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Tesla reportedly facing DOJ, SEC probes over plans to build Elon Musk a large glass houseTesla is reportedly facing two new federal probes over possible misuse of company resources by or for the personal benefit of CEO Elon Musk. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/tesla-reportedly-facing-doj-sec-probes-over-plans-to-build-elon-musk-a-large-glass-house.html |
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McConnell suffering ‘occasional lightheadedness’ but is clear to keep working after freezing up in press conference, his doctor saysPresident Joe Biden said McConnell sounded like “his old self” when he called him on the phone a day after Senate GOP leader’s latest health incident. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/mcconnell-suffering-occasional-lightheadedness-but-is-clear-to-keep-working-his-doctor-says.html |
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Ozempic could be the next target of Medicare drug price negotiations – here’s whyWall Street analysts expect Ozempic to be selected for price negotiations in 2025 due to the amount of money Medicare Part D already spends on the drug. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/ozempic-could-face-medicare-drug-price-negotiations-next.html |
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Sixth Street — which manages more than $70 billion — is betting big on sports teams and live eventsAlan Waxman, the CEO and co-founder of Sixth Street, talked about his vision in the increasingly crowded sports industry. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/sixth-street-which-manages-more-than-70-billion-is-betting-big-on-sports-teams-and-live-events.html |
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Student loan payments restart in October — here are changes borrowers can expectAfter a three-year pause, millions of Americans with federal student loans will have their first payment due in roughly a month. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/student-loan-payments-restart-in-october-four-changes-to-expect.html |
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Taylor Swift Eras Tour concert film will open in theaters same day as new ‘Exorcist’ movieA concert film of Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour” will hit theaters on October 13, going up against the release date of horror flick “The Exorcist: Believer.” Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/taylor-swift-concert-film-new-exorcist-open-same-day.html |
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Here’s why some economists are concerned student loans may cause the next big bubbleSome experts are worried the securitization market around student loans could pose a systematic risk to the American economy. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/why-student-loans-may-be-the-next-bubble.html |
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Here’s the bitcoin outlook for September as crypto industry turns focus on WashingtonBitcoin is on pace to end August down sharply despite several positive regulatory developments for crypto. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/heres-the-bitcoin-outlook-for-september-as-crypto-industry-turns-focus-on-washington.html |
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Philly Fed GDPplus Measure Sure Looks Like Recession Started In Q4 2022Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, The Philadelphia Fed GDPplus measure, a blend of GDP and GDI, is flashing a signal that recession has already started…
Data from Philadelphia Fed, chart by Mish GDPplus is a measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points. It’s a blend, but not an average, of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). It is much smoother than either GDP or GDI as the above chart show. Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/philly-fed-gdpplus-measure-sure-looks-recession-started-q4-2022 |
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Oil Closes At Second Highest Level Of 2023 Amid Plunging Oil InventoriesWTI prices just closed at the second highest level of 2023, up 2.5% at $83.64…
… because, as John Kemp notes, among other things U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have depleted by 34 million barrels since the middle of July, contributing to a sense the market is tightening and driving a recovery in spot prices and calendar spreads.
Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-closes-second-highest-level-2023-amid-plunging-oil-inventories |
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September Needs New Buyers To Keep Rebound GoingBy Jan-Patrick Barnert, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist August has played out largely as expected, with equities recording a familiar seasonal slump. But don’t get too excited about September, either: historical charts suggest it’s a time of frailty for stocks. Add to that underwhelming trading volumes and a reluctance right now among dip buyers to stick their necks out. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index did stray from the script a little this month, trimming its losses half way through with some help from supportive economic data. Fans of statistical and seasonal patterns might want to stay on the side of caution, however, given that September shows a weak average performance over almost every historical time frame ranging from five to 30 years.
While the bounce from this month’s drop of as much as 5.5% in the index looks solid for the moment, it’s not yet clear that investors are convinced by the recent bottom. And if they aren’t, the latest move higher might be met with fresh selling given that the benchmark ha … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-needs-new-buyers-keep-rebound-going |
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Ex-CIA Agent Who Signed Propaganda Letter About Hunter Biden Laptop Tried To Conceal Twitter JobA new Twitter Files has dropped, this time from substack journalist Texas Lindsay – who reveals that a former CIA agent who was one of the 51 ex-intelligence officials that signed the infamous Hunter Biden laptop propaganda letter – tried to hide her later work for Twitter.
Nada Bakos Nada Bakos, whose picture appeared in March 2022 on the cover of the NY Post detailing the signatories of the Oct. 2020 letter suggesting that the Hunter Biden laptop release was a “Russian information operation,” went on to work for Twitter’s policy team in March 2022.
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Wilko: HMV owner Doug Putman moving closer to rescue dealDoug Putman wants to keep up to 300 of the current 400 Wilko shops open if he succeeds in buying the chain. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66668569?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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UBS to cut 3,000 jobs despite record $29bn profitThe Swiss firm reports the biggest-ever quarterly profit for a bank after buying Credit Suisse. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66668735?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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India’s Adani Group stung by fresh controversyA new report has alleged that the conglomerate used “opaque” funds in Mauritius to manipulate stock prices. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-66643833?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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9 Nifty stocks are at least 15% away from their 52-week highs. Check upside potentialWithin the Nifty index, there are nine stocks that continue to be available at least 15% away from their highest levels over the past year. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/9-nifty-stocks-are-at-least-15-away-from-their-52-week-highs-check-upside-potential/slideshow/103241395.cms |
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FTSE August Review: MTAR Tech, Nazara Tech, 2 others to enter Global Smallcap indexNazara Technologies stock got an additional boost from news the company’s board will meet on Monday to consider fundraising options through the equity route. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/ftse-august-review-mtar-tech-nazara-tech-2-others-to-enter-global-smallcap-index/articleshow/103243561.cms |
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Breakout Stocks: How NCC, Medplus Health and Lakshmi Machine Works are looking on charts for Friday’s tradeSectorally, buying was seen in consumer durables, realty, metals, and telecom stocks while selling was seen in oil & gas, utilities, public sector, and FMCG. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/breakout-stocks-how-ncc-medplus-health-and-lakshmi-machine-works-are-looking-on-charts-for-fridays-trade/articleshow/103248967.cms |
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The Moneyist: ‘He wanted nothing to do with me’: I discovered my biological father through Ancestry.com. Am I entitled to a share of his estate?“My biological father died suddenly. He was a very wealthy man.” Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7256-BE0E069CDBBD%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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The Moneyist: I want to give over $600,000 to my adult children. How do I ensure they don’t lose that money in the event they divorce?“I have a good pension and my own property, so I would like to set my children on the property ladder.” Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7257-DD0A0B44C926%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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The Moneyist: I gave my daughter $5,000 for her divorce, but she lashed out when I refused to give her more. When will enough be enough?“I have provided more than $166,000 in financial assistance to my daughters since they graduated from high school.” Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7255-CA10AA835316%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
