Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023Valid 00Z Mon Aug 28 2023 – 00Z Wed Aug 30 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southeastern
portions of the U.S. through Tuesday……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of the Southern
Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast……Tropical Storm IDALIA is forecast to strengthen while moving northward
across the Gulf of Mexico…
| Notices: Recently we published the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A front extending from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and then roughly
southwestward to the Gulf Coast States will be quasi-stationary through
Tuesday. Tropical moisture pooling along the boundary will produce showers
and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.A second area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop
over parts of western Tennessee. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee Valley through
Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.The threat of excessive rainfall continues on Monday as showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain develop over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Southern Appalachians. Therefore, on Monday, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic/Southern Appalachians. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Generally, on Sunday into Monday, an area of showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms will develop along the boundary from the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast to the Gulf Coast States and Southern Plains.
Furthermore, upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Rockies into the Southern High Plains on
Sunday.The threat of excessive rainfall continues on Tuesday as showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain develop over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Southern Appalachians. Therefore, on Tuesday, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic/Southern Appalachians. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Elsewhere, wildfire smoke over parts of the Pacific Northwest has prompted
Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Sunday evening
into Monday morning. Moreover, a front develops over the Pacific Northwest
on Tuesday producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Central Rockies will slowly
retreat into Mexico as a front moves across the south-central portion of
the country by Monday. The high will create oppressive daytime heat and
limited overnight cooling, which will also contribute to the effects of
heat, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over portions
of the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the
Southeast.In addition, the dangerous heat wave will persist for portions of the
southern U.S. through Monday. Record high temperatures combined with
unusually high humidity levels will lead to heat indices near record
levels over the Gulf Coast region. Extreme heat and a lack of overnight
cooling will unfortunately persist over much of the South ahead of a cold
front, especially along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida through
Monday. The heat of this intensity poses a health risk to everyone with
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Do not underestimate the
potential for heat-related illness � have a way to break your heat
exposure, cool down, and stay hydrated! Following a brief reprieve,
dangerous heat is likely to return to much of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley during the first week of September.Lastly, Tropical Storm IDALIA, near the Yucatan Peninsula, is forecast to
strengthen while moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Check the
latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center for IDALIA s most
current track and strength. By Tuesday, IDALIA is forecast to be close
enough to stream tropical moisture northward into the Eastern Gulf Coast,
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, on
Tuesday, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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