Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 24 2023Valid 12Z Thu Aug 24 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 26 2023
…Dangerous heat continues from the Midwest to Gulf Coast, with relief
finally on the way for some by this weekend……Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across the Lower Great
Lakes and parts of the central Appalachians into tonight……Scattered flash flooding concerns forecast from the central Great Basin
to the central High Plains through Friday…
| Notices: Recently we published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Yet another day of dangerous and oppressive heat is anticipated throughout
a large portion of the Nation situated underneath a potent upper level
ridge. Record-breaking heat with forecast highs into the upper 90s and low
100s will impact a broad region between the Midwest and central Gulf Coast
today. When factoring in sultry humidity levels, heat indices could
approach 120 degrees. This heat wave will pose a greater health risk than
usual, and be potentially deadly, due to multiple consecutive days of
extreme heat, the intensity of the heat, and lack of overnight cooling
associated with record warm overnight lows. Heat Alerts (Excessive Heat
Warnings/Watches and Advisories) currently span across 20 states and
include just over 110 million people. Residents are advised to follow
proper heat safety by staying hydrated, avoiding extending periods of time
outdoors, and looking out for vulnerable family members, friends, and
neighbors. The good news for northern regions impacted by ongoing
sweltering conditions is that a cold front will begin to push south today
and bring much more comfortable temperatures to much of the Midwest by
Saturday. However, searing heat will remain throughout the South into the
start of the weekend.On the northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, shower and
thunderstorm chances exist from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to the
Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast. A slow-moving warm front will provide a
focus for developing thunderstorms. These storms will be able to take
advantage of elevated atmospheric moisture content to create intense
downpours. As a result, the threat of flash flooding exists from northeast
Ohio to much of Pennsylvania and southern New York State. Thunderstorms
may also contain damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps and tornado
between southern Michigan to western Pennsylvania. By Friday, the frontal
system is expected to push farther south and east, spreading
rain/thunderstorm chances to New England and the Mid-Atlantic.Farther west, remnant tropical moisture from Harold rounding the western
edge of the central U.S. upper ridge will continue to lead to scattered
flash flooding potential over the central Great Basin today. In
particular, southern Utah and western Colorado are located within a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall. These areas are situated within
overlapping vulnerable terrain and best atmospheric conditions conducive
for heavy rainfall. The flash flooding risk is expected to shift into the
central Rockies and central High Plains by Friday as the aforementioned
lingering tropical moisture interacts with an approaching cold front. A
few inches of rain within a short period of time could lead to rapid
runoff and flooding concerns.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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