Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Aug 23 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 23 2023 – 12Z Fri Aug 25 2023…Over 100 million people under heat alerts from the Midwest to the Gulf
Coast as record-breaking temperatures continue through the end of the
week……Scattered flash flooding threat spans across West Texas, the Southwest,
and central Great Basin over the next few days……Locally heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible across the Lower
Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley…
| Notices: Recently we published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A searing August heat wave is forecast to continue through at least the
end of this week underneath a potent upper-level ridge anchored over the
Mid-Mississippi Valley, which will drive oppressive heat from the central
U.S. to Gulf Coast States. High temperatures throughout these areas are
forecast to reach into the upper 90s and low 100s through Thursday before
a cold front dropping south begins to usher in cooler temperatures over
the Upper Midwest on Friday. When factoring in brutal humidity levels,
maximum heat indices could approach 120 degrees. While it is not uncommon
for August to feature dangerous heat, these temperatures are extremely
anomalous and likely to break numerous daily and potentially monthly
records. In fact, highs are forecast to reach up to 20 degrees above
average throughout Iowa and neighboring states today. Very warm overnight
temperatures only dropping into the upper 70s and low 80s will compound
the impacts associated with this potentially deadly heat wave. Heat alerts
(Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Advisories) have been issued from
Minneapolis to New Orleans, which includes 22 states and roughly 130
million people. It is imperative to take the heat seriously and avoid
extended time outdoors, as temperatures and heat indices will reach levels
that would pose a health risk, and be potentially deadly to anyone without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Remember, heat is the
number-one-weather-related cause of death in the United States.Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Harold and its surrounding moisture is
currently pushing westward across far northern Mexico and is expected to
produce the potential for flash flooding from West Texas to the Southwest
today. As the showers and thunderstorms continue to circle around the
anchored upper high in the central U.S., the remnant tropical moisture is
forecast to turn north and enter this part of the country from
north-central Mexico, while also pushing into the central Great Basin on
Friday. Thunderstorms will be capable of containing intense rainfall rates
that could lead to rapid runoff and flooding concerns. To further
highlight the threat, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has
been issued from West Texas to southern New Mexico today and southern Utah
on Thursday. Lingering anomalous atmospheric moisture content and an
approaching cold front will combine to produce additional scattered flash
flooding chances over parts of the central Rockies/High Plains on Friday.Elsewhere, precipiation chances continue to circumvent the strong upper
high over the Midwest and progress from the Great Lakes to the Ohio
Valley/central Appalachians today. Some of the strongest thunderstorms
could yield isolated instances of flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, and
severe hail. Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue towards the end
of the week while also progressing eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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