Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Aug 22 2023Valid 12Z Tue Aug 22 2023 – 12Z Thu Aug 24 2023
…Extremely dangerous heat will persist across a widespread region
spanning from the Midwest to Gulf Coast this week……Heavy rain and gusty winds associated with Tropical Storm Harold to
impact South Texas today……Scattered flash flooding concerns exist across parts of the Great Basin
and Southwest…
| Notices: Recently we published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A searing August heat wave is set to continue this week underneath a
potent upper level ridge anchored over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The
oppressive heat will impact a widespread region from the Midwest to the
Gulf Coast, including much of the Great Plains as well. High temperatures
throughout these areas are forecast to reach into the upper 90s and low
100s each day through at least Thursday. When factoring in brutal humidity
levels, maximum heat indices could approach 120 degrees. While it is not
uncommon for August to feature dangerous heat, these temperatures are
extremely anomalous and likely to break numerous daily and potentially
monthly records. In fact, highs are forecast to reach up to 20 degrees
above average throughout Iowa and neighboring states over the next few
days. Very warm overnight temperatures only dropping into the upper 70s
and low 80s will compound the impacts associated with this potentially
deadly heat wave. Heat alerts (Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and
Advisories) have been issued from Minneapolis to New Orleans, which
includes 22 states and roughly 100 million people. Take the heat seriously
and avoid extended time outdoors. Temperatures and heat indices will reach
levels that would pose a health risk, and be potentially deadly to anyone
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Remember, heat is the
number-one-weather-related cause of death in the United States.Newly formed Tropical Storm Harold located over the western Gulf of Mexico
is anticipated to continue its westward motion and impact South Texas
today with heavy rain and gusty winds. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches,
with isolated higher amounts up to 7 inches, through early Wednesday could
produce scattered areas of flash flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued for the region. Additionally, tropical
storm force winds will accompany the system as it progresses inland, as
well as rough surf along the coast. By Wednesday and Thursday, Harold and
its remnant moisture is forecast to push into northern Mexico and the
Southwest/Southern Rockies. This may lead to additional flash flooding
concerns, especially near the more flood-prone slot canyons in Utah on
Thursday.Otherwise, scattered flash flooding remains possible across the Northern
Great Basin and Intermountain West today as anomalous moisture content and
uniform southerly flow allows for potentially training
showers/thunderstorms. Farther east, precipiation chances continue to
circumvent the strong upper high over the Midwest and progress from the
Great Lakes today to the Northeast/Central Appalachians by Wednesday and
Thursday. Some isolated thunderstorms could contain damaging wind gusts.
The West and Northeast will enjoy below average temperatures to go along
with rain chances, as highs for most locations remain in the 70s and low
80s.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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