Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Aug 14 2023Valid 12Z Mon Aug 14 2023 – 12Z Wed Aug 16 2023
…Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible for the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Monday, lingering along the coast into
Tuesday……Portions of the South to see a brief reprieve from the heat mid-week as
a heat wave intensifies across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern
Rockies……Monsoonal showers continue across the Four Corners region with some
locally heavy downpours possible…
| Notices: Recently we published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A consolidating/organizing frontal system will push eastward from the
Mississippi Valley towards the East Coast today aided in part by an
unseasonably strong upper-level wave dropping south from Canada. Strong
lift as well as very moist, southerly flow ahead of and around the system
will trigger scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday
stretching from the Great Lakes south into the Upper Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys eastward through the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. Two
areas of concern have arisen for flash flooding with Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place. The first covers areas around
southern Lake Michigan where slow moving, widespread storms may lead to
long duration, heavy rainfall totals. The second stretches from the Upper
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys east through the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic
where some organized lines as well as individual storms will both have the
potential to produce very heavy downpours with anomalously high moisture
in the region. In addition to flash flooding, the Storm Prediction Center
has outlined this region for a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather
as strengthening upper-level flow with the approaching wave will provide
enough shear for more robust, organized storms which may produce some
instances of damaging winds as well as a few tornadoes. The cold front
will slow as it approaches the East Coast Monday night, allowing for
renewed storm development Tuesday ahead of the front from the DelMarVa
south through the eastern Carolinas, where Slight Risks for Excessive
Rainfall and severe weather are in place. Highs ahead of the front in the
Mid-Atlantic will remain seasonably warm and in the mid-80s to mid-90s,
while locations to the north of the system into New England and behind the
front into the Great Lakes/Midwest will be unseasonably cooler and mainly
in the 70s.To the south, dangerous heat will continue Monday thanks to a well
anchored upper-level ridge with widespread heat-related advisories and
warnings spanning from Florida north to the Carolinas and west to
Texas/Oklahoma. High temperatures once again are forecast to range from
the mid-90s in Florida and the Carolinas, the upper 90s to low 100s for
the Southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and as high as the
mid-100s into portions of Texas. These temperatures when combined with
high humidity will allow for heat indices as high as 110 to 120F for many
locations. Numerous record-tying/breaking highs are forecast, with
similarly record-level warm low temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
providing little relief from the heat overnight. Fortunately, the noted
strong upper-level wave/cold front pushing southeastward will bring a
brief reprieve to northern portions of the region by Tuesday. Highs from
northern Georgia west through north Texas will drop to much more
seasonable values in the mid-80s to low 90s, and even upper 70s for
portions of the Mid-South. The heat will remain oppressive Tuesday to the
south of the front from south Texas east along the Gulf Coast to Florida
and northeastward into the Carolinas, but even some of these locations may
see a bit of relief into mid-week as well.Another major heatwave will continue to build today over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Rockies in relation to a strengthening ridge of high
pressure overhead. High temperatures will range from the low 90s around
Puget Sound, the upper 90s to low 100s for the interior Northwest and
Northern Rockies, and the mid-100s to potentially over 110 degrees for the
interior valleys west of the Cascades in Oregon. Numerous near
record-tying/breaking highs are possible here as well. These temperatures
combined with the duration of heat, expected to continue through this
week, will increasingly pose a heightened health risk, especially for
those without adequate air conditioning.Daily rounds of thunderstorm activity can be expected across the Four
Corners region northwestward into the Great Basin and portions of the
Sierra thanks in part to Monsoonal moisture and a lingering frontal
boundary near the region. Any of these storms may have the potential to
produce heavy downpours with an isolated threat for flash flooding. Daily
highs will be near seasonal averages with 70s in proximity of the
California Coast, low to mid-90s for the Great Basin, and 100s for the
Desert Southwest. Highs in the interior California valleys will trend a
bit hotter with mid-100s expected and Heat Advisories in place. With
cooler, post-frontal air filtering south into the central U.S., portions
of the Central/Southern High Plains/Rockies will have some cooler highs
than points west on Monday; mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Temperatures will begin to rapidly rebound Tuesday as conditions moderate
following the frontal passage, with highs jumping back into the upper 80s
to low 90s.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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