Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 11 2023Valid 12Z Fri Aug 11 2023 – 12Z Sun Aug 13 2023
…Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S……Severe thunderstorms possible today for the Midwest and Saturday for
the Ohio Valley/Northeast……Monsoonal showers for the Four Corners region with generally below to
near average temperatures in the West…
| Notices: Recently we published the Update to the previously published Mid-Month Outlook for August and you can access that article HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Dangerous heat will continue for much of the southern tier of the U.S.
into the weekend as a stagnant upper-level high remains in place.
Widespread heat-related advisories and warnings are in effect from Florida
west through the Gulf Coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Central/Southern Plains, with the most excessive heat expected over
portions of Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Forecast highs Friday
and Saturday range from the mid-90s in Florida and the Central Plains to
the low 100s in Oklahoma and the Lower Mississippi Valley and the mid- to
upper 100s into Texas. When combined with high humidity values, heat
indices will range between 110-120 degrees for many locations. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs are forecast both days, with similarly
record-level warm low temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s providing
little relief from the heat overnight. Unfortunately, the heat looks to
continue beyond the current forecast period, with some moderation
potentially by the middle of next week. Areas north of the Gulf Coast in
the Southeast and into the Carolinas look to be spared some of the most
oppressive heat as a lingering frontal boundary helps to trigger shower
and thunderstorms.Meanwhile, to the north, energetic upper-level flow above a consolidating
lower pressure system across the Midwest/Plains will provide the focus for
shower and thunderstorm chances Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for the Mid- to Upper
Mississippi Valley and Lower Missouri Valley where some of the stronger
storms may produce some instances of damaging winds and large hail. The
system and subsequent storm chances will shift eastward into the Northeast
and Ohio Valley on Saturday, with another Slight Risk of severe weather in
place for the continued risk of some damaging winds and large hail.
Additional storms are expected to the southwest over portions of the
Central/Southern High Plains as a cold front sags southward across the
region. Another storm system will bring storm chances back to the
Central/Northern Plains into the Midwest Saturday afternoon into early
Sunday. Forecast highs range from the upper 70s to the mid-80s for the
Northeast, the upper 80s to mid-90s for the Mid-Atlantic, the mid 80s to
low 90s for the Midwest, and the low 90s for much of the Plains. The far
northern tier will see cooler temperatures behind a cold front, with 60s
in the Upper Great Lakes and 70s to low 80s in the Northern Plains.To the West, monsoonal moisture in the Four Corners region will lead to
daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with a few locally heavy downpours
possible. This will also help to keep temperatures a bit below average,
with highs only into the upper 70s for some locations. Areas of the
Central/Southern Rockies and Great Basin will be a bit closer to average,
seeing highs in the mid-80s to low 90s, and upper-90s to mid-100s for the
Desert Southwest. A lingering upper-level low will keep temperatures
unseasonably cool over portions of California, as highs are expected to be
in the upper 60s to mid-70s for the coast and mostly 80s for the interior
valleys outside of the Deserts. Conditions will be tranquil with near
average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. Highs will generally range
from the mid-80s to low 90s. However, an upper-level ridge building in
over the region looks to bring a heat wave just beyond the current
forecast period.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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