Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 05 2023Valid 12Z Sat Aug 05 2023 – 12Z Mon Aug 07 2023
…Dangerous heat will continue for the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley but relief for some is coming beginning on
Sunday……Potential for severe thunderstorms and/or flash flooding from the
central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest…
| Notices: Recently we published the Update to the previously published Mid-Month Outlook for August and you can access that article HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect across a large portion of Texas and
Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley as well as southeastern
California into southern Arizona for today. This is due to the influence
of a large and elongated upper level ridge extending from Arizona/New
Mexico to the central Gulf Coast. High temperatures across the Southern
Plains will again be in the low to mid-100s today, with peak heat index
values of 110 to 115 given high humidity in place. Similar heat is
expected across portions of the Desert Southwest, although lower dewpoints
across California and Arizona will support more of a dry heat across the
region with actual air temperatures climbing to 105 and locally over 110
for a few locations.Locations north of the southern U.S. heat wave will see the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms, with a focus for wind and hail from
southeastern Colorado into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma
today/tonight. One of the contributors to the active weather will be a
strong upper level disturbance forecast to move eastward through the
central and northern Plains over the next 24 hours. This system will be
associated with a slow moving area of low pressure at the surface over
South Dakota and anomalous moisture supporting a threat for heavy rain and
possible flash flooding from South Dakota into western portions of Iowa
and Minnesota. A dual threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
will exist across portions of Illinois and Indiana today near an eastward
moving surface cyclone. Farther south near a lingering frontal boundary
across northern Oklahoma will be the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms with threats of strong winds and large hail the main
concerns.The central U.S. storm system will shift east on Sunday, translating the
threats for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding into portions of the
Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley. A relatively strong cold front will
trail the accompanying low pressure center and sweep into Oklahoma and
Arkansas by Monday morning, lowering high temperatures to near or below 90
degrees for many across Oklahoma, Kansas into Missouri and Arkansas. The
cold front will bring an end to the oppressive heat for these northern
locations during the day on Monday but heat and humidity will remain south
of the cold front into much of central/eastern Texas, Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, as well as the Desert Southwest.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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