Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Aug 02 2023Valid 12Z Wed Aug 02 2023 – 12Z Fri Aug 04 2023
…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southern Appalachians, along with two areas
over the Northern/Central Plains on Thursday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and the Central High Plains on Thursday……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast…
| Notices: Recently we published the NOAA Four-Season Outlook which you can access HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A front extending from the Southeast across the Central Gulf Coast to the
Central Plains will be quasi-stationary through Thursday. East of the
boundary, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Middle
Mississippi Valley, aided by tropical moisture and a stationary front
creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Missouri
and Illinois. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Thursday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.Additionally, the system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of Missouri and Illinois. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.Meanwhile, upper-level energy and a steady supply of moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Idaho, Utah,
Wyoming, and a small part of Colorado. Therefore, through Thursday
morning, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin, and Northern Rockies.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Moreover, a weak front over the Northern Plains will move eastward into
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes. On Wednesday, the boundary
will produce showers and moderate to strong thunderstorms over parts of
the region.On Thursday, upper-level energy and a weak front nearby will create
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of extreme southeastern
Wyoming, western Nebraska, northwestern Kansas, and northeastern Colorado.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Central High Plains from Thursday through Friday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Northern High Plains and another area over the Central High Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over two
regions, parts of the Northern High Plains and the second area over the
Central High Plains, from Thursday through Friday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Further, the area of excessive rainfall over the Mississippi Valley moves
eastward and decreases slightly on Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and the Southern Appalachians from Thursday through Friday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable. Also, showers and thunderstorms will move into parts of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Elsewhere, a nearby front and ample
amounts of moisture will create showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Southeast through Friday.Furthermore, an upper-level high over the Central/Southern Plains will
create hot high temperatures. In addition, a few locations will have
record-high low temperatures contributing to areas not cooling off
overnight, which will also contribute to the effects of heat, prompting
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over portions of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf
Coast.In addition, the dangerous heat wave will continue this week across
portions of the Central and Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley,
and areas along the Gulf Coast. High temperatures will be well into the
90s and triple digits extending northward into the Central Plains. The
combination of heat and humidity will result in daily maximum heat indices
over 110 F expanding from eastern Texas across much of Louisiana and
southern Mississippi through midweek. These temperatures will persist
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.Additionally, expect several new record-warm nighttime lows along with
oppressive heat index values during the day. It is essential to have ways
to cool down and limit your heat exposure. These temperatures and heat
indices will pose a health risk to those without an effective cooling
method and/or adequate hydration. Be sure to follow heat safety
precautions.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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