Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jul 29 2023Valid 12Z Sat Jul 29 2023 – 12Z Mon Jul 31 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast and Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Southern
New England to the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians and a second area
over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains eastward to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the western
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and a second area from Southern New England to the
Mid-Atlantic and smaller areas over portions of California and Southwest…
| Notices: Recently we published the NOAA Four-Season Outlook which you can access HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A front extending from parts of the Northeast/Lower Great Lakes across the
Ohio Valley into the Middle Mississippi Valley, then northwestward across
the Central High Plains, will slowly move off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Coast and southward to the Southeast to the Central Plains by Monday. The
system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms from parts of the
Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms over parts of Southern New England to the
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Sunday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Further, the showers and thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain over
parts of the Northeast and a second area over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Eastern Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northeast and the Central
Appalachians/Eastern Ohio Valley through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Moreover, a second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop
over the western portion of the front over southeastern Wyoming, eastern
Colorado, and far western Nebraska. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High
Plains from Saturday through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.On Sunday, the threat of excessive rainfall ends over the eastern half of
the country and the threat of severe thunderstorms is reduced slightly
over the East Coast. However, showers and thunderstorms with moderate to
heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and
Central/Southern Rockies and a second area over parts of the Northern High
Plains. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.Furthermore, along the western and central portions of the boundary
showers and moderate to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Northern/Central High Plains and a second area over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley on Sunday.Upper-level energy and tropical moisture will also produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast through Sunday.Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Southwest to the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley will bring hot high temperatures and hot
low temperatures that will contribute to areas not cooling off overnight,
which have contributed to Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over
portions of the Central/Southern Plains eastward to the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and the western Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. In addition,
moisture moving into the Southwestern portion of the country has reduced
the areal coverage of the Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories to
the southernmost counties of California. A second area of Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories is over portions of Southern New England to
the Mid-Atlantic. The heat wave will also build early next week across the
south-central and southeastern U.S.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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