Updated at 5:06 p.m. EDT Thursday, July 27, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023Valid 00Z Fri Jul 28 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 30 2023
…Dangerous heat wave to continue across the Northeast and Central &
Southern Plains, lasting through weekend……Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible throughout portions of
Northeast on Thursday……Record-breaking heat to continue across Southwest and Central U.S.
through end of week…
| Notices: Recently we published the NOAA Four-Season Outlook which you can access HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Widespread heat is expected to impact millions as a dangerous heat wave
materializes over the Plains and East Coast during the latter part of this
week. Currently, Excessive Heat Advisories and Warnings are in effect over
the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, lower Great Lakes, and much of the Great
Plains. Within these areas, daytime temperatures are forecast to approach
and exceed 95-100F heading into this weekend, but oppressive humidity will
make these temperatures feel much hotter. Heat index values are set to
approach 105-110F on Thursday and Friday, especially over the Mid-Atlantic
and Central Plains. In addition to the hot daytime highs, nighttime lows
are also expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average, with the potential
for several warm nighttime low records to be broken. Some areas may not
see their heat indices drop below 80 degrees overnight. Residents that are
under heat-related advisories and warnings should practice heat safety
this week as this heat wave will be the hottest stretch of summer so far
for many. Heading into this weekend, the orientation of heat is expected
to shift; an upper-level ridge will amplify over the Central Plains,
resulting in the continuation of hot weather over the central U.S. On the
contrary, relief is expected to arrive in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
over the weekend as a cold front ushers in much cooler and drier air over
the weekend. High temperatures expected to maximize in the low to mid 80s
over the region by Sunday.
While much of the country will be experiencing hot weather, other parts of
the country will be experiencing severe weather. In the Northeast, an
upper-level shortwave will help to force an area of severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area with a Slight Risk of
Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) over the Northeast Corridor, noting the
potential for strong wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two.
Additionally, anomalously high moisture content across the region may set
the state for possible flash flooding across New England. WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) across this region, noting
the potential for thunderstorms to produce heavy rain rates over highly
saturated soils from previous heavy rainfall.
A second area of strong thunderstorms is expected to impact the Upper
Midwest along a cold front seeping through the region. A very unstable
airmass is expected to develop during the afternoon, and these two
features will positively interact to produce an area of severe
thunderstorms over Minnesota. This complex of thunderstorms will move
east-southeastward through portions of Wisconsin overnight. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for Severe
Thunderstorms over the region, as these thunderstorms may have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts very large hail. Over the
following days, daytime convection is expected to form along the cold
front sweeping through the Great Lakes, which will provide some relief
from summer heat across the northern tier of the country.
Elsewhere, an upper-low off the coast of Florida is producing an area
heavy rain and thunderstorms across much of the Florida Peninsula,
especially southeast Florida. WPC issued a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall across the region given urban sensitivity to flash flooding in
southeast Florida. This upper-low is expected to drift into the Western
Atlantic by Friday, helping to lessen the heavy rain threat. Over the
West, the heat wave continues, with above-average temperatures persisting.
Several locations are set to near record highs and record warm lows in the
short term forecast. Additionally, daily scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms forecast across the region, especially over areas of complex
terrain.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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