Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023Valid 00Z Mon Jul 17 2023 – 00Z Wed Jul 19 2023
…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of New
England on Sunday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of New
England and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from the Pacific Northwest,
California, and the Great Basin to parts of the Southern Plains, Central
Gulf Coast, and southern tip of Florida……Air Quality alerts over parts of the Northern High Plains, Upper
Midwest, and Ohio Valley…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. We have published the update for July you can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A weak front extending from the Northeast to the Southeast and then
westward to the Southern Plains slowly weakens by Tuesday. The boundary
and a plume of tropical moisture extending from the Central/Eastern Gulf
Coast over the Mid-Atlantic coast into New England work together, creating
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of New England through
Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of
flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.In addition, the front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of New England. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of New England through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.Moreover, the front mentioned earlier, showers and thunderstorms will
develop heavy rain over parts of eastern Texas and Louisiana along the
western portion of the front. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable.Further, a wave of low pressure along a second front extending from the
Great Lakes southwestward to the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley
will create showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Additionally, there is a
threat of hail two inches or greater over central Kansas.On Monday, farther northwestward along the western portion of the front,
as mentioned earlier, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and northeastern Nebraska. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is
a threat of hail two inches or greater over the area.Also, on Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases over the lower
forty-eight, with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast to the Ohio Valley. The second area of excessive rainfall will
develop over parts of eastern Florida, with a third over the Central Gulf
Coast. A fourth area of excessive rainfall develops over parts of the
Southwest and a fifth over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain over those
regions.On Tuesday, a front extending from the Lower Great Lakes westward to the
Central/Northern Plains produced showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over two regions, Northeast and Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast and a second area over Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.Moreover, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along
the boundary from the Western Ohio Valley northwestward to the
Northern/Central Plains and a second area over the Northern Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Western Ohio Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and
Northern/Central Plains. On Tuesday, the second area will be over the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Meanwhile, upper-level high over California/Great Basin eastward to
western Texas will extend upper-level ridging into parts of the Pacific
Northwest, bringing hot high temperatures and low temperatures not cooling
off much overnight, which have contributed to Excessive Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories over California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and
Louisiana and parts of Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma,
and the southern tip of Florida.In addition, the ridge will bring an extremely dangerous heat wave over
the Southwest into the following weekend. Dangerous heat may continue into
next week for parts of the region. All-time heat records could be
approached or reached at some locations in the Southwest. The all-time
heat records would likely be on Sunday, particularly in the San Joaquin
Valley, Mojave Desert, and Great Basin regions. Phoenix is also likely to
register its hottest week on record by 7-day average temperature. Take the
heat seriously and avoid time outdoors. Temperatures will reach levels
that pose a health risk and are potentially deadly to anyone without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Heat is the leading
weather-related killer in the U.S..Lastly, wildfire smoke from Western Canada will reduce air quality over
parts of the Northern High Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes,
and Western Ohio Valley, prompting Air Quality Warnings over the area.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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