Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jul 15 2023Valid 12Z Sat Jul 15 2023 – 12Z Mon Jul 17 2023
…Dangerous heat wave to remain anchored over the West this weekend;
growing hotter in the South by early next week……Excessive Rainfall and severe weather to transpire across the eastern
half of the Lower 48……Canadian wildfire smoke is responsible for Air Quality alerts in parts
of the North Central U.S. and Ohio Valley…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. We have published the update for July you can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The West will be mired in the midst of a dangerous heat wave thanks to a
strong ridge of high pressure stationed over head for the next few days.
Daytime highs will routinely range between 10-20F above normal, equating
to daytime temperatures approaching the century mark in the interior
Northwest, between 100-110F in central and southern California, and
115-120F+ in the high desert of southern California, southern Nevada, and
Arizona. These values will also likely amount to numerous daytime record
highs being broken this weekend in the Southwest and Great Basin. While
the core of the hottest temperatures is setting up in the Southwest,
sultry conditions persist in the south central U.S. and in South Florida.
Daytime highs in the 90s to low 100s with oppressive humidity levels will
allow heat indices to range frequently between 105-110F each afternoon.
All affected regions will struggle to cool off each night, making for
little in the way of relief even well after the sun sets Saturday and
Sunday evenings. There are no shortage of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories that stretch from the West Coast to the Gulf Coast. For more
information on the impacts of this eat wave, please visit heat.gov.The heat wave in the West will keep the West quite dry this weekend, but
it is quite the opposite east of the Rockies where widespread showers and
thunderstorms are forecast. A pair of frontal systems tracking through the
Midwest and Northeast will be the catalysts for rounds of strong-to-severe
storms. Today, WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights three Slight
Risks areas: one in the southern High Plains, the central Appalachians,
and the interior Northeast. The Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) spans
from the southern Rockies to the East Coast, placing a large portion of
the U.S. population at risk for flash flooding. The Storm Prediction
Center has its own Slight Risk area for parts of eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle, along with a Marginal Risk from the Tennessee Valley on north
into the eastern Great Lakes. By Sunday, the Excessive Rainfall threat
becomes a bigger concern as WPC has hoisted a Moderate Risk (threat level
3/4) for much of the Northeast. There is also the potential for severe
storms in the Midwest and in the Northeast Sunday afternoon and evening.While temperatures will be seasonal to slightly below normal in parts of
the northern High Plains and Midwest, these regions are set to contend
with poor air quality throughout the weekend. The poor air quality is due
to wildfire smoke from western Canada being directed into the north
central U.S.. Canadian wildfire smoke will reach the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by Sunday. Lastly, there is an Elevated threat for fire weather in
parts of the the Columbia River gorge of northern OR and central WA on
Sunday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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