Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 14 2023 - 12Z Sun Jul 16 2023 ...Dangerous heat wave to stretch from the West Coast to the Gulf Coast; at least 93 million people are under Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories as of this morning.... ...Friday features an expansive threat for Excessive Rainfall, highlighted by a Moderate Risk for portions of the Northeast; severe weather likely in the Central Plains... ...Saturday remains active with numerous heavy showers & storms in the East; Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the southern High Plains...
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. We have published the update for July you can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
This weekend features no shortage of significant weather headlines that are led by stifling heat, excessive rainfall, and severe weather. Shining the spotlight on the heat first, a searing heat wave is set to engulf much of the West Coast, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This is the result of an upper level ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. that is forecast to strengthen throughout the weekend. Friday will feature some record heat in parts of the Southwest, but record-breaking heat expands even more throughout the region on Saturday. Daytime highs by Saturday will range between 105-115F from the Great Valley of CA to the Desert Southwest. Some parts of the desert region of southern CA, southern NV, and southern AZ could see daytime highs top 120F. Farther east, oppressively hot and steamy conditions will persist from Texas and the Lower MS Valley to Florida. Heat indices today look to range between 100-110F on average, with up to 115F readings possible along the immediate cast of Texas and Louisiana. Expect similar heat indices in the South Central U.S. and Florida on Saturday. In addition to the sizzling high temperatures and heat indices, morning lows across the southern tier of the U.S. will remain exceptionally warm, providing little in the way of relief to these affected regions. Numerous Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued from the West Coast to South Florida, resulting in over 93 million Americans being placed under one of these two heat-related hazards. For more information on the scope of the heat and its impacts, please visit heat.gov for more information.Elsewhere, a pair of frontal boundaries; one in the Northeast and another
crossing the Nation’s Heartland will be the focus for widespread heavy
showers and thunderstorms. In terms of Excessive Rainfall, a few Slight
Risks (threat level 2/4) have been posted for portions of the Mid-South,
the southern Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. There is a more serious
Moderate Risk (threat level 3/4) in place for parts of southern NY and
central New England where the combination of torrential downpours over the
region’s highly saturated soils make them particularly vulnerable to flash
flooding. There is also a threat for severe weather as the Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for the Central Plains and a
Marginal Risk that includes not only areas from the central High Plains to
the Great Lakes, but also the I-95 megalopolis from Richmond/Washington
D.C. to NYC and Boston.By Saturday, most of the eastern third of the Lower 48 is under a Marginal
Risk (threat level 1/4). WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook also highlights
the southern High Plains with a Slight Risk. The Storm Prediction Center
indicates the best threat for severe weather is forecast to occur in the
eastern Great Lakes, Upper Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians where a
Marginal Risk has been issued. For those wanting to escape the heat this
weekend, the Upper Midwest and both the central and northern High Plains
will see a pair of cold fronts inject seasonally cooler temperatures from
Canada into these regions. Daytime highs will range anywhere from 5-15
degrees below normal there. The driest conditions are set to occur in the
western third of the U.S., the Dakotas, and along the western Gulf Coast.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
