Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023Valid 00Z Fri Jul 14 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 16 2023
…A couple rounds of heavy rain could trigger additional flash flooding
over interior New England through tonight……Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the central Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and into the eastern Gulf Coast
over the next couple days……Significant heat wave continues to expand across much of the western
and southern tier of the U.S….
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. We have published the update for July you can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A low pressure wave that had developed along a cold front continues to
track into Quebec in Canada this Thursday afternoon. Moist southerly flow
ahead of the front combined with instability from an approaching upper
trough has triggered a couple of lines of heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms across upstate new York. The heavy rain and thunderstorms
are forecast to move through interior New England this evening/tonight
over where the wet ground is especially sensitive to additional heavy
rainfall. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) is maintained
for southern Vermont and adjacent Upstate New York. A separate Slight Risk
(level 2/4) remains in effect for the upper Ohio Valley where another
focused area of heavy rainfall is expected. Strong flow aloft as well as
moderate instability will also lead to a few robust, organized
thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of
tornadoes for the Interior Northeast/Upper Ohio Valley. A Slight Risk of
severe weather (level 2/5) has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center
for the region. The heavy rain threat will shift slightly southeastward
Friday ahead of the the slow-moving cold front with a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for southern New England and the coastal Mid-Atlantic.The prevailing upper-level pattern across mainland U.S. will continue to
feature periodic intrusions of cool air from central Canada into the
northern tier states. This pattern will tend to maintain broad troughing
across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the main trough axis
edges toward the East Coast with time as an anomalously strong upper ridge
builds over the Southwest. Rounds of showers and storms between these
synoptic systems will likely continue across the midsection of the
country. High moisture to the south and pooling along the boundary will
help promote very heavy downpours with intense rainfall rates and the risk
of flash flooding. The tendency for storms to grow upscale into organized
convective systems will increase the areal coverage of rainfall and heavy
rain totals. Meanwhile, an ongoing convective system will likely promote
additional heavy rain and storms inland from the central to eastern Gulf
Coast region where a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect
over central Mississippi into tonight. A Slight Risk is in place more
broadly across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast
through Friday with the potential more organized convective systems.
Further west, more isolated, scattered storms are expected, but pooling
moisture and upslope flow along the foothills of the southern Rockies will
provide instability for robust thunderstorm development later Friday into
early Saturday with a slight risk of excessive rainfall into the southern
High Plains.Meanwhile, a stagnant upper-level high in place over the
Southwest/northern Mexico that has led to hot temperatures over portions
of the Southwest and South-Central U.S. this week will continue to build
in coverage, particularly to the northwest over the Great
Basin/California/Pacific Northwest. Widespread heat-related advisories and
warnings are in place across the Central/Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley as well as portions of the Desert Southwest as a
significant heatwave intensifies across the southern tier of the country.
Forecast highs will be in the upper 90s and low 100s for locations in the
eastern half of the Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley which, when
combined with very high humidity, will lead to oppressive heat indices in
the 110-115 degree range. A frontal boundary and convective outflows
sliding into northern portions of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley will likely bring a bit of relief Friday. To the west, while there
will be less humidity, air temperatures will soar much higher into the mid
100s for west Texas and New Mexico and into the 110s for the Desert
Southwest. A few record-tying/breaking temperatures are possible. The heat
will begin to build northward into California, the Great Basin, and the
Pacific Northwest on Friday, with highs into the 90s and low 100s. Heat
advisories also remain in effect for south Florida where relatively warm
temperatures in the mid-90s and heat indices up to 110 continue. In
addition to the oppressive heat during the day, overnight lows will remain
abnormally warm, bringing little relief from the heat overnight. Numerous
near record-tying/breaking warm lows are expected. Unfortunately, the long
term outlook through the weekend and into next week is for an increasingly
significant and oppressive heat wave. In contrast, much cooler air from
central Canada will dip further into the northern Plains by early
Saturday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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