Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023Valid 00Z Thu Jul 13 2023 – 00Z Sat Jul 15 2023
…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Plains over the next couple days……Heavy rain potential returns to the Northeast Thursday…
…Building heat wave continues to expand across much of the western and
southern tier of the U.S….
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. We have published the update for July you can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A complex Summer-time pattern continues to unfold across central and
southern portions of the Lower 48, with the forecast on track for multiple
corridors of severe weather and heavy rainfall today. A slow moving
frontal boundary will continue to serve as a catalyst for widespread
thunderstorms as it interacts with Deep Gulf of Mexico moisture in place
and warm summer-time temperatures across much of the Midwest/Mississippi
Valley. After nearly 10 inches of rain fell across southern
Arkansas/northwest Louisiana last night (prompting multiple Flash Flood
Emergencies), very heavy rainfall is expected to shift eastward across
central Mississippi later today, where localized rainfall totals of 8″ are
possible through tomorrow. Accordingly, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) was
introduced across central Mississippi today as numerous instances of flash
flooding are possible. Elsewhere, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 2/4) extends across southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri, as well as
portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Lower Great Lakes tonight as
a well defined complex of thunderstorms rolls south and east today. An
Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) is outlined by the Storm
Prediction Center across portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri,
primarily for damaging wind gusts (some of which could be greater than 75
mph) and large hail.The upper-level trough and surface frontal system will gradually translate
eastward Thursday towards the East Coast, renewing chances for
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast
as southerly flow ahead of the system draw moisture northward. Slight
Risks of Excessive Rainfall remain across portions of Upstate New York,
interior New England, as well as the Upper Ohio Valley through Friday.
Following the catastrophic flooding earlier this week, interior New
England remains particularly sensitive to any additional rainfall, so the
forecast will need to be monitored very closely as any changes can bring
big impacts. Further west across the Tennessee Valley into the Central
Plains, broad coverage of showers and thunderstorms will support some
instances of isolated to scattered flash flooding and severe weather
through the end of the work week.Meanwhile, a stagnant upper-level high in place over the
Southwest/northern Mexico will not only remain in place but begin to build
in coverage, particularly to the northwest over the Great Basin and
California. Widespread heat-related advisories and warnings remain in
place across the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley as
well as portions of the Desert Southwest and California as a very intense
heat wave takes shape. By this weekend, several locations across the West
look to make a run to tie or break their all time record high. For
locations further east in the Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Southeast temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s combined with high
humidity will make it feel warmer than 115 degrees this week.
Unfortunately, the long term outlook for the region shows a continued
heatwave through this weekend and into next week. To underscore just how
expansive this heat is, based off the current forecast approximately 27
million people across the Lower 48 will experience an air temperature or
heat index above 110 over the next 7 days. It is imperative users take
action to limit their exposure to the oppressive hot weather as it looks
to stick around for the time being.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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