Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information. (You can update this section here, but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
The color coding is as follows. severe, wet, cold, warm, normal
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jul 11 2023Valid 12Z Tue Jul 11 2023 – 12Z Thu Jul 13 2023
…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Plains and Midwest over the next few days……Anomalously hot Summer weather forecast throughout much of the Southern
Tier……Near average temperatures and generally tranquil conditions for the
Northeast and portions of the West…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A lingering frontal boundary that has led to days of active weather over
portions of the Central/Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley
will once again be the focus for more showers and thunderstorms and the
risk for heavy rainfall Tuesday in the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Ongoing organized convection early this morning as well as
additional development expected along the front and any lingering outflow
boundaries has promoted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4).
Scattered showers and storms will continue into Wednesday across the
Southeast as the quasi-stationary boundary remains in place. Further
north, energetic northwesterly flow over a southeastward moving frontal
boundary will bring showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
Northern/Central Plains Tuesday and the Midwest Wednesday. Moderately
strong flow aloft will lead to sufficient shear for organized storm
development. In accordance, Slight Risks of severe weather (level 2/5)
have been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the potential of one
or more convective systems capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. In addition, high surface moisture and subsequent CAPE will promote
storms with heavy downpours and high rain rates. There are Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall for the Mid-Missouri Valley Tuesday and the Middle
Mississippi Valley to Lower Great Lakes Wednesday for the threat of
widespread heavy rainfall totals from the combination of repeated rounds
of storms along the frontal boundary and the potential development of
organized convective systems. Highs will generally be below average
following the passage of the system over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to low 80s.An upper-level high over Texas and the Southwest will begin to expand in
coverage over the next couple of days with subsequent
continuation/expansion of anomalously hot Summer heat for the Southern
Tier of the country. Numerous heat-related advisories/watches/warnings are
in effect from Florida to Texas to California. Starting in Florida, highs
in the mid-90s are not significantly above average but relatively
anomalous, with near record-tying/breaking temperatures for some
locations. When combined with the humidity, heat indices will range
between 105-110 degrees. Highs will be in the upper 90s to low 100s for
eastern Texas Tuesday, spreading northward into additional portions of the
Southern Plains and Central Plains Wednesday. High humidity will lead to
heat indices up to 110 here as well. Further west into west Texas as well
as the Desert Southwest, humidity will not be as high but the air
temperature will be hotter, ranging between the mid-100s to mid-110s,
posing a similarly high risk of heat-related impacts. While there may be
some daily fluctuations, the heat is forecast to continue through this
week and into the following week as the broadening upper-level high
remains in place.Elsewhere, showers will push north and eventually come to an end through
the day Tuesday for New England after multiple days of significant
rainfall over the Northeast. Conditions will clear out in general
following a frontal passage and ahead of increasing precipitation chances
late Wednesday ahead of another system moving in from the west. Highs will
generally be near to just above average for the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas, ranging from the upper 80s to mid-90s. After a cool rainy day
in the 70s for portions of northern New England, highs will rebound into
the mid- to upper 80s on Wednesday. Highs will be around average broadly
across the West outside of the Desert Southwest, ranging from the upper
80s to low 90s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin to the upper 90s
for the central California Valleys. Highs will be mostly in the 60s and
low 70s for locations along and close to the West Coast.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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