Updated Monday Afternoon July 10, 2023: Notice the warning for Vermont and nearby areas.
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023Valid 00Z Tue Jul 11 2023 – 00Z Thu Jul 13 2023
…Significant to catastrophic flooding is expected to continue across
much of Vermont and nearby sections of New England through tonight……Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding concerns persist
across the Central/Southern Plains and Midwest over the next few days……Anomalously hot weather forecast throughout much of the Southern Tier
into midweek…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A slow moving storm system containing instances of heavy rain has impacted
much of New England today, particularly in Vermont, with several instances
of severe flooding. The low pressure system and anomalous atmospheric
moisture content associated with the ongoing heavy rain event is forecast
to slide northeastward tonight and eventually exit the region on Tuesday.
Before then however, additional slow moving showers capable of containing
intense rainfall rates are expected to dump a few additional inches of
rainfall over parts of northern Vermont and far northeast New York. As a
result, dangerous flooding in these areas are forecast to continue or
worsen throughout the night, with impacts turning from flash flooding to
main-stem river flooding. A High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall
remains in effect for much of Vermont, highlighting the potential for
catastrophic flooding that has not been seen in this part of the country
since 2011. It is imperative to never drive across flooded roadways, as
most flood-related deaths occur within vehicles.Elsewhere, a lingering frontal boundary stretching from the Southeast to
the southern Plains and a separate frontal boundary pushing through the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest will allow for numerous clusters of
strong thunderstorms over the central United States. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are most likely to accompany thunderstorms across the
central Plains, which is where the Storm Prediction Center has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are also possible along the frontal boundary stretching into
much of Wisconsin, as well as further south throughout the Texas Panhandle
and western Oklahoma. Flash flooding chances may also accompany storms as
they cross into parts of Oklahoma and north-central Texas, where recent
rain has left soils mostly saturated. By Tuesday and Wednesday the
greatest severe weather and flash flooding threat shifts to the central
Plains and Midwest as developing storms progress along a slow moving
frontal boundary.July heat is expected to continue during the next several days throughout
the Southern Tier States as an upper high anchors over West Texas and the
Southwest. Highs in the Southwest and southern High Plains will easily
reach into the triple digits, with upper 90s and low 100s expanding into
more of the central/southern Plains on Wednesday. Maximum temperatures
into the 110s are likely throughout the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile,
oppressive humidity will lead to dangerous heat indices across parts of
Texas, the immediate Gulf Coast, and Florida Peninsula. Heat Advisories
are in effect for parts of Texas and southern Florida to account for heat
indices up to 110 degrees. Residents and visitors are reminded to follow
proper heat safety and limit strenuous outdoor activities.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
