Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 09 2023Valid 00Z Mon Jul 10 2023 – 00Z Wed Jul 12 2023
…Heavy rain is likely to produce the potential for significant flash
flooding throughout parts of the Northeast tonight and into New England on
Monday……Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley……Anomalously hot weather continues for portions of the Florida
Peninsula, Texas, and the Southwest…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A consolidating frontal system near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline
tonight when combined with anomalous atmospheric moisture content will
create an environment ripe for flash flooding. Based on current radar
observations heavy rain this afternoon already stretches from northeast
Maryland to southern New York State, with a fast moving line of storms
extending into eastern North Carolina as well. This corridor of intense
rainfall rates has produced areas of significant flash flooding in eastern
Pennsylvania this afternoon, with the threat expected to gradually expand
and linger through the overnight hours as the associated storm system is
slow to exit the region. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect from New England to the Mid-Atlantic through early Monday
morning, as well as Flood Watches. Residents and visitors are advised to
heed any warnings and never drive through a flooded roadway. If driving is
necessary, be sure to check current road conditions before venturing out
as over 50% of all flash flooding deaths occur within vehicles. By Monday,
the significant flash flooding threat is expected to remain over parts of
New England and could become extremely dangerous throughout parts of
Vermont and the Champlain Valley bordering nearby New York State. Several
additional inches of rainfall falling within a relatively short period of
time over mostly saturated ground could lead to significant flash and
river flooding impacts. Where terrain is most susceptible, mud slides
cannot be ruled our across Vermont as well. The system should finally exit
much of the region by Tuesday morning and only offer a few remaining
scattered shower chances.Further south along an associated frontal boundary stretching from the
Southeast to the Southern Plains, additional shower/storm chances exist
tonight in the Mid-South. Locally heavy rain could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding, as well as a threat for damaging wind gusts.
By Monday, the severe weather threat becomes more widespread throughout
the Great Plains, with scattered chances for damaging wind gusts and large
hail extending as far north as the Upper Midwest near an approaching cold
front. This cold front will also focus additional heavy rain and severe
thunderstorm potential on Tuesday from central Nebraska to southern Iowa.Hot weather is expected to continue early this week across much of the
Southern Tier, including the Southwest, Texas, and Florida Peninsula.
Highs in the Southwest and southern High Plains are forecast to reach
above the century mark, with 110s possible in the afternoon hours across
Arizona. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect.
Additionally, the combination of high temperatures and oppressive humidity
may allow for heat indices to approach 115 degrees throughout parts of
South Texas. Elevated heat indices may also extend deeper into central
Texas and create the potential for dangerous conditions if citizens are
unable to find relief in air conditioned buildings. High heat indices are
also located over parts of southern Florida, where Heat Advisories are in
effect in order to highlight forecast heat indices up to 110 degrees.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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