Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Sat Jul 08 2023Valid 00Z Sun Jul 09 2023 – 00Z Tue Jul 11 2023
…Heavy rain and instances of flash flooding likely across parts of the
Northeast on Sunday, with the threat lingering across New England on
Monday……Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through this
weekend……Anomalously hot weather continues for portions of the Southwest, West
Texas, interior Pacific Northwest, and Florida Peninsula…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A mid-summer weather pattern featuring dangerous heat and the threat of
severe thunderstorms and/or flash flooding is expected to impact parts of
the United States headed into early next week. At the upper levels, a
trough is forecast to swing through the East Coast while a building ridge
anchors over the Southwest. Anomalous atmospheric moisture content located
across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast when combined with forcing from an
approaching frontal system will allow for numerous thunderstorms to
produce areas of heavy rain between the Mid-Atlantic and New England on
Sunday. This heavy rainfall threat when combined with wet antecedent
conditions is likely to produce several areas of flash flooding, some of
which could be significant. The heaviest rain is likely to occur across
the northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, with the threat shifting to the
Interior Northeast and New England between Sunday night and Monday.
Residents and visitors in this region between DC/Maryland and Vermont are
urged to monitor local warnings and never drive through flooded roadways.
Along with the heavy rainfall potential, severe thunderstorms capable of
containing damaging wind gusts are possible throughout portions of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.Along an attached frontal boundary extending from the Northeast through
the Mid-South and into the Southern Plains, clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms are forecast to push from the central High Plains tonight
towards the southeast. The threat of damaging wind gusts are forecast to
spread as far east as the Mid-South, with large hail possible over eastern
Colorado and the OK/TX Panhandles. Additionally, heavy rain could lead to
scattered areas of flash flooding. The flash flood and severe thunderstorm
threat is also expected to linger into Sunday between the central Gulf
Coast and Southern Plains, before a resurgence in thunderstorm activity
throughout the Central/Southern Plains on Monday.Much of the Southern Tier between the Florida Peninsula and the Desert
Southwest have truly entered the dog days of summer, with oppressive heat
forecast to remain in place into the foreseeable future. Highs into the
mid-90s are forecast across the southern Florida Peninsula, with high
humidity leading to heat indices near 110 degrees. Similar conditions are
expected over the next few days across southern Texas, but with highs
topping out near 100 degrees. Lower humidity, but even high maximum
temperatures are forecast into the southern High Plains and Southwest,
where high temperatures are forecast to surge pass the century mark.
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect across parts of southern Arizona,
with Heat Advisories spanning from southern New Mexico to southern Texas.
Additionally, summer heat will continue across the interior Northwest on
Sunday as highs reach into the upper 90s before slight relief arrives on
Monday with more seasonable temperatures.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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