Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Thu Jul 06 2023Valid 00Z Fri Jul 07 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 09 2023
…Additional rounds of severe weather with heavy rainfall and flash
flooding chances persist across the central Plains through late week,
reaching into the Mississippi Valley by Saturday……Hot weather continues over the interior Northwest and parts of the East
while Excessive Heat Warnings and Critical Fire Risk remain in effect for
Arizona…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A frontal system or two stretched across the Plains will help cause
repeating rounds of convection as it focuses moisture and instability.
Severe weather and heavy rainfall potentially causing flash flooding are
likely through the end of the week with multiple convective storms and
complexes. More specifically, through the rest of the day and tonight,
Slight to Enhanced Risks of severe weather are in place across much of the
High Plains as tornadoes, high winds, and large hail are all threats.
Flash flooding is possible as well in the central Plains and downstream
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Not much will change meteorologically
for Friday, with Slight Risks of both severe weather and flash flooding in
place again for the south-central Plains. For Friday night into Saturday,
these risks could stretch farther east into the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valley as the surface fronts and waves of low pressure start
to consolidate.Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the East.
Ample moisture ahead of a cold front tracking slowly eastward could lead
to storms in the interior Northeast and Mid-Atlantic that may cause flash
flooding particularly tomorrow afternoon, as indicated by a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall. Summertime scattered thunderstorms should linger
across the southern tier states as well.Cool temperatures across the northern/central Plains will persist into the
weekend at least, while gradually moderating and spreading east.
Meanwhile, temperatures should be near to above average south of the front
from the Desert Southwest across the South and into the East. Southwestern
states can expect temperatures well into the 100s and even 110s, with
Excessive Heat Warnings in effect through Friday in southern Arizona. Dry
and windy conditions combined with the heat will lead to Critical Fire
Weather risks over the next couple of days across northern Arizona.
Additionally, high temperatures in the mid-90s across southern Florida
could challenge daily records during the next couple of days. Heat
Advisories remain in place there and also in parts of the Northeast given
warm temperatures through this evening. On the opposite side of the
country, hot weather is forecast to continue over parts of the Northwest
where high temperatures nearing 100F are forecast for the next few days at
the hottest locations across the interior sections. After a warm
afternoon/evening today in the Pacific Northwest, temperatures across
those regions closer to the coast should gradually moderate late week.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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