Updated at 5:59 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, July 5, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Wed Jul 05 2023Valid 00Z Thu Jul 06 2023 – 00Z Sat Jul 08 2023
…Severe weather and heavy rainfall/flash flooding chances persist across
the central Plains through at least Friday……Heat reaches its peak intensity over portions of the Pacific Northwest
today (Wednesday) while Excessive Heat Warnings and Critical Fire Risk are
in effect for Arizona…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A fairly strong front for this time of year is pressing across the central
U.S. and sparking showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. The
northern part of this front is likely to move slowly east over the next
few days and impact the Great Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions and
eventually the Eastern Seaboard with moderating temperatures and some
scattered convection. In fact, there is a small Slight Risk of severe
weather in place for portions of northern Illinois/southeastern Wisconsin
through tonight per the Storm Prediction Center. But overall more
impactful will be multiple organized clusters of storms in the central
U.S. over the next few days, as the front becomes nearly stationary from
generally west-east and serves as a focus for moisture to pool. Severe
weather is likely across parts of the High Plains today through Friday
with the risk perhaps peaking on Thursday in the central High Plains,
where there is an Enhanced Risk of severe storms as tornadoes, high winds,
and large hail are all potential risks. Additionally, heavy to excessive
rainfall could produce flash flooding since high rain rates are likely.
Slight Risks of excessive rainfall are in place through all of the next
three days in central/southern portions of the Plains given this
potential. Meanwhile, the Southeast could see scattered convection as well.The aforementioned front is causing a notable divide in above and below
normal temperatures across the country. Cool temperatures across the
northern/central High Plains today should persist through Friday at least,
while gradually moderating and spreading east, with a few record cool
highs/lows possible. Meanwhile, temperatures should be near to above
average south of the front from the Desert Southwest across the South and
into the East. Southwestern states can expect temperatures well into the
100s and even 110s, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect through Friday
in southern Arizona. Dry and windy conditions combined with the heat will
lead to Elevated to Critical Fire Weather risks over the next couple of
days centered in northern Arizona. Also, Florida’s highs today reaching
the mid-upper 90s could set records, and Heat Advisories are in place. The
cold front will cool temperatures to below average in the east-central
U.S. by Thursday and Friday as it pushes through. Additionally, hot
weather is in place for the Pacific Northwest with temperatures in the 90s
to even exceeding 100F potentially setting records this afternoon. Western
parts of the Northwest should cool tomorrow while the interior regions
warm above average into the 90s, but not to record levels.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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