Updated at 5:10 p.m. EDT Sunday July 4, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Tue Jul 04 2023Valid 00Z Wed Jul 05 2023 – 00Z Fri Jul 07 2023
…Well above-normal to record-breaking heat expected for portions of the
Pacific Northwest……Strong to severe storms likely for portions of the Northern/Central
Plains and into the Midwest; Critical Fire Risk over northern Arizona
tonight……Heavy to excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding possible from
Northern/Central Plains into Upper Midwest as well as Northeast tonight…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
On this 4th of July, the northern High Plains will likely be the area
having the best chance of seeing some natural fireworks, thanks to a
rather strong intrusion of cool air from Canada for this time of the year.
Locally heavy rain along with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop behind the cold front that marks the boundary of the
cool air mass. By later today and into tonight, the axis of heavy
rain/storms will progress farther south toward the Central Plains. By
Wednesday into early on Thursday, the threat of strong thunderstorms
should lessen as they shift farther east across the upper Midwest into the
Great Lakes. Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms can also be
expected along the eastern slopes of the Northern and Central Rockies
through the next couple of days as the cool air will be forced to lift
along the terrain behind the cold front. Meanwhile, a drastic cool down
ensures behind the front with record cool day-time temperatures possible
in Wyoming on Wednesday.In the West, temperatures are expected to remain above normal along much
of the West Coast into the southwestern U.S., with some record high
temperatures possible for portions of western Oregon on Wednesday. With
temperatures likely to climb to their highest of the season so far, Heat
Advisories are in effect for portions of western Oregon, interior counties
of far northern California, central New Mexico, Texas Florida and coastal
Carolinas. Heat Advisories are currently in effect for over 30 million
people. Meanwhile, with another day of temperatures climbing well in
excess of 110F, Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect across the lower
deserts of Arizona and southeastern California. Dry, hot and windy
conditions will support a Critical Fire Weather risk over much of northern
Arizona through tonight.Seasonal to above-average temperatures will continue across the southern
Plains and through much of the eastern U.S. More typical summertime
scattered thunderstorms are expected to linger across the southern tier
states. Meanwhile, a low pressure wave moving across New England will
weaken further and become diffused over the next couple of days. Much of
the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic will see decreasing rain chances over
the next couple of days especially over New England, although some
isolated thunderstorms could still produce locally heavy rain in these
areas.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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