Updated at 4:13 p.m. EDT Monday, July 3, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Mon Jul 03 2023Valid 00Z Tue Jul 04 2023 – 00Z Thu Jul 06 2023
…Well above-normal to record-breaking heat expected for portions of the
Northwest……Strong to severe storms likely for portions of the northern to central
Plains and the Midwest……Unsettled weather, including strong to severe storms, expected from
parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast into the southern Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
In the West, temperatures are expected to remain above normal along much
of the West Coast into the southwestern U.S., with record-breaking
temperatures forecast for portions of western Oregon on Tuesday. With
temperatures likely to climb to their highest of the season so far, Heat
Advisories are in effect for portions of western Oregon and the interior
counties of far northern California. With another day of temperatures
climbing well in excess of 110F, Excessive Heat Warnings are scheduled to
remain in effect through Tuesday across the lower deserts of Arizona and
southeastern California.Over the central U.S., a strong cold front is forecast to push south and
east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong to severe
storms are expected to develop near the front, with damaging wind and
large hail possible this evening, especially for areas east of the Big
Horn Mountains through South Dakota. The focus for severe storms is
forecast to shift farther south and east, extending from the upper
Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Tuesday. Scattered
severe thunderstorms, producing damaging winds, can be expected across
this region. By Wednesday, the front and the focus for showers and storms
will slide farther south and east into the central Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. Heavy rainfall with isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible with these storms through the period as well.Behind the front, much cooler air will spread from the northern High
Plains on Tuesday through the remainder of the northern Plains and into
the central High Plains on Wednesday. Daytime highs of 15-20 degrees
below normal can be expected for parts of the region.Seasonal to above-average temperatures will continue across the southern
Plains and through much of the eastern U.S. Showers and storms developing
ahead of a slow-moving front extending from the Northeast back into the
southern Plains are likely to continue into this evening. Some of these
storms are expected to become strong to severe, with damaging winds likely
across parts of the Mid Atlantic States through the early evening hours.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop once again along the
front as it drifts slowly across the region on Tuesday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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